FNUS73 KMPX 051335
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for SMSC Rx Burn...Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
835 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 CDT on May 05. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with 
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the SMSC RX burn, Southerly winds around 5 mph at ignition
become southerly at 5-8mph by noon. Transport winds will be SSW at 6-8mph
becoming more southerly by late morning at 7-10 mph. RH values will drop below 
35% this afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower 70s with mostly 
clear skies expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). 
Temperature.........67 at ignition...Max 69. 
RH..................36 percent at ignition...Min 33 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise 
                    South winds 6 to 7 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good /39700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good 
                    /46100 knot-ft/. 
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6600 ft 
                    AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 8 mph. 
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated 
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4. 

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR 
Weather cov.....                                                
Weather type....                                                
Tstm cov........                                                
Temp............67  68  69  67  66  63  59  56  54  52  50  49  
RH..............36  34  33  37  40  46  55  62  66  69  77  77  
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   7   6   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   
20 FT wind gust.9   10  10  10  9   7   7   9   9   9   9   9   
Mix hgt (kft)...6.6 6.6 6.4 5.9 3.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   
Transp wind spd.7   8   8   10  9   7   7   9   10  10  12  12  
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). 
Temperature.........Min 46. 
RH..................Max 83 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the 
                    southeast 6 to 8 mph in the late evening and 
                    overnight. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good (52700 knot-ft) early in the evening 
                    decreasing to poor (3300 knot-ft) late in the 
                    night. 
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....South 7 to 14 mph. 
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated 
                    fire growth. 

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly 
                    sunny (60-70 percent). 
Temperature.........Max 74. 
RH..................Min 41 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 18 mph with gusts to 
                    around 30 mph increasing to around 20 mph with 
                    gusts to around 33 mph late in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5100 knot-ft) early in the morning 
                    increasing to excellent (104300 knot-ft) in the 
                    afternoon. 
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....South 14 to 21 mph shifting to the southeast 25 
                    to 28 mph in the late morning and afternoon. 
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated 
                    fire growth. 

$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Rachel Crownhart
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413194.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL [email protected]