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FNUS73 KMPX 171213
FWSMPX
Spot Forecast for PBW west Rx...Minnesota DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
713 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Any stray showers should be moving out this morning, allowing
skies to mostly clear out. Temperatures will make a run up into
the upper 80s depending on how much persistent sunlight we see today.
This would allow RH values to drop as low as the upper 20s by this
afternoon. Winds will be light this morning, but will pick up in
strength this afternoon out of the south, with gusts up to 15-20
mph possible at times.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 86.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
South winds 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /12200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /100000 knot-ft/ increasing to
excellent (112900 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............60 65 70 73 77 79 82 84 85 86 85 84
RH..............75 65 58 51 47 43 37 34 32 29 32 32
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..10 12 12 12 12 10 12 13 13 13 12 12
20 FT wind gust.17 18 18 18 18 17 18 20 20 21 20 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.8 4.6 5.7 6.2 6.6 6.4 3.5
Transp wind dir.S S SW SW S SW SW SW S S S S
Transp wind spd.17 20 20 18 20 20 18 20 18 20 22 18
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 65.
RH..................Max 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (121200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to good (55400 knot-ft) late in the
night decreasing to fair (17600 knot-ft) early
in the evening decreasing to poor (6700
knot-ft) late in the night early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 13 mph shifting to the west
13 to 17 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (112800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (92600
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 23 mph shifting to the west 21 to
29 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Area Wildlife Supervisor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414496.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL [email protected]