Summer thunderstorms, with their hit-or-miss nature, dominated precipitation patterns across the U.S. this week. The greatest departures from normal precipitation occurred across portions of the central and southern Plains, West Texas, New Mexico, and the Midwest. Areas of southern Louisiana, northern Alabama, and western Kentucky also recorded well-above-normal precipitation. The East Coast remained dry, with the exception of Florida’s Atlantic coast. Much of the West also remained dry, with only portions of the Pacific Northwest and southern California recording near- to above-normal precipitation.Temperatures for the week were below normal across the Southeast, with parts of Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina averaging 3–6 degrees below normal. Portions of West Texas, southeast New Mexico, and the Pacific Northwest were also below normal. The greatest temperature departures occurred in the central and northern Plains, where portions of Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota experienced temperatures 9–12 degrees above normal.Drought signals across much of the southern U.S. remain mixed, with wetter short-term conditions developing while long-term deficits persist despite the recent pattern change. In the Plains, impacts have primarily affected winter wheat and forage production, and areas that have remained dry continue to experience elevated fire danger. In the Southeast, water supply concerns and fire danger remain significant, particularly in Florida.

Forecast

During the next 5–7 days, the West is expected to remain quite dry, while the southern U.S. and portions of the Midwest have the greatest potential for above-normal precipitation. The northern Plains and Southwest are forecast to receive less than 1 inch of precipitation.

Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal across the West, with departures exceeding 10 degrees above normal in Nevada and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Most of the remainder of the country is expected to experience near- to slightly below-normal temperatures.

The 6–10 day outlook shows the best chances for above-normal temperatures will be across the West and Southeast, especially in areas centered on Nevada and much of South Florida. Above-normal chances for below-normal temperatures will be centered on the Great Lakes and Midwest, with the highest probabilities over Michigan.

Above-normal chances for below-normal precipitation will be over much of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as northern areas of California, Nevada, and into Oregon. Above-normal chances for above-normal precipitation will be mainly in the southern and eastern U.S., with the highest probabilities in South Texas and into the lower Mississippi River Valley.

Midwest

Growing short-term drought signals were tempered by a wetter week across much of the region, resulting primarily in improvements, with degradations confined to Minnesota. The heaviest rainfall occurred from eastern Iowa into western Indiana and across much of western and central Missouri. Western Kentucky also received above-normal precipitation. Below-normal precipitation was common from western Iowa into Minnesota, across much of central Wisconsin, and in Ohio and southern portions of Indiana and Illinois.



Temperatures were mixed, with much of the region above normal and Minnesota averaging 8–10 degrees above normal. Near- to below-normal temperatures were observed from southern Missouri into Kentucky.



Improvements to abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought occurred across northern Illinois, eastern Iowa, and northeastern and southern Missouri. Extreme drought was removed from western Kentucky, accompanied by improvements to moderate drought there and into southern Illinois.



The most significant change occurred in Minnesota, where the cumulative effects of multiple dry years have affected much of the northern portion of the state, including the headwaters of the Mississippi River. Moderate drought expanded, and severe drought was introduced.