Rainfall was highly variable across the Nation this past week. Totals exceeding 2 inches were widespread from northern and eastern Indiana through much of Ohio and into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Localized areas across central and eastern Indiana, central and southeastern Ohio, and western West Virginia recorded 5 to 7 inches. Interior sections of central and northern Missouri also saw widespread totals topping 2 inches, with a few isolated patches receiving 4 to 5 inches. Other areas with more scattered totals over 2 inches include the Upper Midwest, east-central Great Plains, the southern Great Lakes region, the central and southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills, the Carolinas, central and northern Georgia, and the Florida Peninsula. More moderate amounts, with isolated spots recording 2 to 3 inches, were dotted across the remainder of the Eastern Seaboard, Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Desert Southwest where a decent monsoonal circulation remained in place. Meanwhile, little or no precipitation fell on most locations in the seasonably-dry Far West, the Great Basin, the Intermountain West, much of the central and northern Rockies, most of the Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, most of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, portions of southern New England, the Virginia Tidewater, and adjacent locations. Farther north, a few tenths of an inch of precipitation were observed in central Alaska and the upper half of Southeast Alaska while little or no precipitation fell farther south there. The areas of Hawaii experiencing abnormal dryness (D0) recorded isolated amounts approaching an inch last week, but most of these areas received a few tenths of an inch at best.Temperatures averaged at least slightly above normal along the West Coast and from the Great Basin and Southwest through the southern Plains and most of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Most areas from the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic regions northeastward to the Atlantic Ocean and Canadian Border also experienced a warmer than normal week. Numerous locations from near the Great Basin through Oklahoma and western Texas average 6 to 10 deg. F above normal, as did much of New England. Meanwhile, subnormal temperatures dominated the northern Plains. Other sites across the Lower-48 recorded near-normal temperatures for the week.

Forecast

During August 13-17, 2026, moderate to heavy rain (over an inch) is forecast across the central and northern High Plains, the northern Rockies, the Colorado Rockies, scattered locations over the central and western Four Corners region and Great Basin, much of the northern and central Great Plains, the southern and central Great Lakes region, the northern Ohio Valley, and several patches across southern New England, the lower Northeast, southern Georgia, and both the southern and northern reaches of Florida. The highest totals (3 inches or more) are expected across part of east-central Montana, the northeastern quarter of Colorado, and much of a band from central Iowa into western Indiana. In contrast, light precipitation at best is anticipated across northern New England, interior sections of the Middle and Southern Atlantic States, northern portions of the Great Lakes and Minnesota, Lower Mississippi Valley, central and southern Plains, most of the Pacific Coast States, and lower elevations across the Great Basin and the central to southern Rockies. Meanwhile, areas from the south-central Great Plains across the Southeast are expected to record daily highs averaging 5 to 11 deg. F above normal, with the largest anomalies expected from Arkansas through central Tennessee. Farther north and west, daily highs should average 3 to 6 deg. F below normal over much of California and the Great Basin, the Northern Intermountain West, and northern reaches of the Rockies and Plains. Other locations should average closer to normal.

The 6- to 10-day outlook (August 18-23, 2026) at least marginally favors above-normal precipitation across the northern half of the Eastern Seaboard westward through the Great Lakes region, the northern halves of the Mississippi Valley and Plains, and from the Rockies to the West Coast. The best odds for wetter than normal weather (over 50 percent) cover the interior Pacific Northwest. Surplus precipitation is also favored throughout Alaska and Hawaii, with odds topping 40 percent in south-central Alaska and through the Hawaiian Island Chain. Subnormal totals are somewhat favored from the southern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast region and Florida. Meanwhile, warmer than typical mid-August conditions should dominate all 50 states, excepting only southwestern Alaska and the Aleutians, most of the central West Coast States and adjacent Great Basin, and the northern tier of the Lower-48 from the northern Plains through most of New England. The likelihood of unusual warmth top 70 percent from the southern Great Plains eastward through the Southeast and South Atlantic Coast, as well as southeastern Maui and the Big Island of Hawaii, and part of east-central Alaska. Chances exceed 80 percent from the central Lower Mississippi Valley into the interior central Gulf Coast States. Odds marginally favoring subnormal temperatures are restricted to the Aleutians and northern Maine.

Midwest

A variable precipitation pattern was observed last week across the Midwest Region, with deficient precipitation persisting across much of the northern tier of the region, along with scattered locations from central Illinois into southern Indiana. Meanwhile, a swath of heavier amounts brought improvement to significant locations across south-central and northern Missouri, central and eastern Iowa, and the southern tier of the Great Lakes region. Over the past 30 days, most areas in a band from north-central Minnesota through northern Wisconsin recorded less than 25 percent of normal precipitation, with many locations reporting several tenths of an inch at best during that period. Amounts have been a little more generous across the central Lower Peninsula of Michigan, central and southern Illinois, southern Indiana, the southern and northern reaches of Missouri, western Iowa, and central through southwestern Minnesota, but many sites here reported half of normal or less during the past 30 days. In contrast, 30-day totals have been well above normal in part of northern Minnesota, south-central Minnesota through eastern Iowa, part of southern Iowa, central Missouri, near the southwestern coast of Lake Michigan, much of northern and eastern Indiana, most of Ohio, and central Kentucky. This has resulted in the patchwork of varying severities of dryness through the Region, but severe drought (D2) is most common through northern Wisconsin, a large part of central and northern Minnesota, and smaller sections of southwestern Minnesota and interior west-central Iowa.