From Aug. 27 to Sep. 3, above-normal temperatures dominated the eastern United States, with areas along the Ohio River seeing temperatures upwards of 6 degrees above normal. The West and High Plains were a patchwork of above-, near- and below-normal temperatures. Isolated areas of southern New Mexico experienced temperatures of 5 degrees below normal. Overall, precipitation for most of the United States was within 1 inch of above- or below-normal conditions. This combination of hot and dry conditions led to continued drying in the Ohio River Basin, where conditions are dire. From Lake Superior southward to Alabama, drought conditions expanded with top and mid soil moisture and streamflow struggling. Texas and the western Gulf Coast saw over 8 to 10 inches of rain in some areas, quickly improving recent drying trends. In the West, there were dry conditions in the south and improving conditions in the Northwest.

Forecast

Over the next five days (September 4-9) the West and High Plains are likely to see little to trace amounts of precipitation, except for areas in the higher elevation of the southern Rocky Mountains. There is a better chance for precipitation in the Great Lakes region. There are three tropical waves in the Atlantic, with two having a 40 to 60% chance of developing into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone within the next seven days. With these tropical waves the Gulf Coast states are likely to see 2 to 3 inches of rain.

The National Weather Service Climate Predication Center’s 6-10 day outlook heavily favors above-normal temperatures from the north-central Canadian border to Arizona-Mexican border. Surrounding areas to the west and east are leaning towards above-normal temperatures. From western Texas into Maryland the temperatures are expected to be near normal, with slightly increasing probability of cooler temperatures southward. Central and southern Florida are likely to see warmer-than-normal temperatures, along with the northern part of Alaska. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook is similar to the temperature outlook, though slightly shifted to the east. Areas of the northern Midwest are likely to see below-normal precipitation, with probability decreasing into the Rocky Mountains and Appalachian Mountains. There is a stronger probability that the Pacific Northwest and eastern Gulf Coast will see above normal precipitation. Hawaii and Alaska are also leaning toward above-normal precipitation.

Midwest

The southern and eastern Midwest missed out on the precipitation to the west and to the east, along with temperatures upwards of 6 to 8 degrees above normal, led to continued deterioration. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across southern and central Illinois and Indiana, and central Kentucky. Western Kentucky also saw the expansion of moderate drought. Ohio, overall, had one-category degradations. After having exceptional drought introduced in Athens and Meigs counties for the first time in Ohio over the drought monitor’s 24-year history, exceptional drought was further expanded northeast and introduced in Pickaway County, Ohio. Elsewhere in the Midwest, there were small areas of improvement and degradations, mostly where precipitation did or did not fall. Northern Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula returned to normal conditions. Areas of western Iowa that missed out on much of the precipitation saw the expansion of abnormally dry conditions which continued into Nebraska. Similarly, western Illinois and eastern Missouri saw abnormal dryness and moderate drought expand.