This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw degradations across the areas of the Plains, Upper Midwest, and Florida, while rainfall during the past week led to improvements in drought-affected areas of the South, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. In the West, a mix of improvements and degradations occurred on the map with improvements across areas of Idaho and Montana in response to above-normal rainfall during the past 30-day period. Conversely, areas of eastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming saw degradation in response to dry conditions and excessive heat and elevated evaporative demand. Likewise, hot and dry conditions prevailed across the central and northern Plains leading to expansion and intensification of drought, with temperatures ranging from 2 to 10+ °F above normal and reports of poor rangeland conditions. In the South, another round of heavy rainfall in the Hill Country of Texas led to continued improvement in the long-term drought situation as well as severe flash flooding, with widespread rainfall accumulations ranging from 5 to 10 inches and isolated areas receiving totals in excess of 15 inches during the past week. In the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, isolated shower activity led to improvements in drought-affected areas of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic states. Similarly, isolated areas of the Northeast received heavy rainfall accumulations ranging from 2 to 5+ inches, leading to improvements in New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.In terms of reservoir storage in the West, California’s reservoirs continue to be at or above historical averages for the date (July 21), with the state’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, at 110% and 100% of average, respectively. In the Southwest, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is reporting (July 19) Lake Powell at 22% full (34% of average for the date; lowest on record for the date in the last 30 years), Lake Mead at 27% full (45% of average for the date; lowest on record for the date in the last 30 years), and the total Colorado River system (July 19) at 33% of capacity (compared to 39% of capacity the same time last year).

Forecast

The NWS Weather Prediction Center 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast calls for the heaviest precipitation accumulations across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states, where precipitation accumulations generally ranging from 2 to 7+ inches are expected, with the highest amounts primarily across the coastal plains of southern Virginia and the Carolinas. Across areas of the interior Southeast, including northern portions of and Georgia as well as eastern Tennessee, precipitation accumulations generally ranging from 1 to 3+ inches are expected. In isolated areas of the Northeast, and central Plains, precipitation accumulations generally ranging from 1 to 2 inches are expected. In Texas, light to moderate accumulations (2 to 4 inches) are expected in areas of the South Texas Plains. In the West, the higher elevations of areas of the central and southern Rockies and portions of the Southwest, including the Mogollon Rim of Arizona, localized precipitation accumulations of 1 to 2+ inches are expected.

The NWS 6–10-Day Temperature Outlook (valid July 27–31, 2026) favors above-normal temperatures across most of the contiguous United States, with the highest probabilities centered across much of California, Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, Plains states, Texas, and western portions of the Midwest. Above-normal temperatures are also favored across much of the South and Southeast regions. Conversely, below-normal temperatures are favored in the Pacific Northwest in western Washington, much of the Northeast, and Alaska, while near-normal temperatures are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

The NWS 6–10-Day Precipitation Outlook favors above-normal precipitation across areas of the Pacific Northwest (Washington), portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, and along the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to Maine. Below-normal precipitation is favored across eastern portions of the central and southern Plains, Texas, South, and Midwest.

Midwest

On this week’s map, degradations were made across areas of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan in response to above-normal temperatures and precipitation shortfalls during the past 30-day period. Elsewhere in the region, conditions continued to improve in Kentucky where precipitation has been well above normal during the past month. Looking at climatological rankings for the past 30-day period, numerous locations ranked among their wettest or near-wettest on record, including Paducah, KY (wettest on record; +7.09 inch departure); Louisville Intl. Airport, KY (wettest on record; +7.08 inches), Ames Municipal Airport (2nd wettest; +7.77 inches); and Evansville, IN (5th wettest; +4.37 inches). Temperatures were near normal across the southern tier of the region, while the northern extent logged anomalies ranging from 2 to 6 °F.