The upper-level circulation over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (September 20-26) consisted of an upper-level ridge of high pressure, that extended from the southern Plains to Hudson Bay, and a low-pressure trough over the eastern Pacific. The trough sent weather systems spinning across the CONUS, with their fronts and surface low pressure systems generating areas of rain across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ophelia moved up the East Coast, spreading rain from North Carolina to southern New England. These areas were wetter than normal for the week. Some of the rain was locally heavy, with over 5 inches reported in places. Much of the rain fell over severely dry areas, which resulted in contraction or reduction in the intensity of drought in parts of the Great Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Mid-Atlantic states. It was drier than normal across the rest of the West, large parts of the central to southern Plains, and most of the country between the Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The continued dry conditions from the Ohio Valley to central Gulf of Mexico Coast resulted in expansion or intensification of drought and abnormal dryness in these areas. Temperatures averaged warmer than normal beneath the ridge across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes. The week was cooler than normal in the West and across the East Coast states.
Forecast
In the two days since the Tuesday valid time of this USDM, the atmospheric river continued in the Pacific Northwest and rain has fallen across parts of the Midwest, Texas, and Florida. For September 28-October 3, a slow-moving weather system will drop 1 to locally 2 inches of rain across the Ohio Valley and parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, while a Pacific weather system will move across the northwestern CONUS, spreading 1 to 2 inches of precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and Montana, with heavier amounts (up to 4 inches or more expected) in coastal areas of Washington and Oregon. The Florida peninsula is forecast to get 2 to 4 inches of rain, while the Gulf Coast, Rio Grande Valley, and Mid-Atlantic states can expect an inch or less. The Southwest, New England, Carolina Piedmont, and most of New York and the southern Plains to Iowa are predicted to receive little to no precipitation. Temperatures are progged to be above normal from the Plains to Northeast and near to below normal across the Southeast and West.
For much of the next 2 weeks, the atmospheric circulation will consist of an upper-level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the Mississippi Valley. The trough/ridge system will slowly shift east during the period. The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) 6-10 Day Outlook (valid October 3-7) and 8-14 Day Outlook (valid October 5-11) favor a fairly stable pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures from the Plains to East Coast and cooler-than-normal temperatures over the West and over the southeastern half of Alaska. The outlook is for above-normal precipitation over the Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, northern half of the West, and most of Alaska. Odds favor below-normal precipitation over the Northeast and Appalachian Mountain chain, extending into the Ohio Valley and to the central Gulf Coast, as well as in the Alaska panhandle.
Midwest
Western parts of the Midwest region were inundated with heavy rain while eastern parts received little to no rain this week. Large areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri, received 2 inches or more, with locally 5+ inches of rain observed. Abnormal dryness and moderate to exceptional drought were reduced in these states, with some 2-category changes occurring. Meanwhile, abnormal dryness and moderate drought expanded across much of Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, where soils were drying, streams were low, and the last 1 to 2 months were extremely dry, and in parts of Michigan, Missouri, and Illinois. Reports received by the Indiana Extension Office included rapid maturation of crops, trees losing leaves, plants dying, large cracks in soils, stunted lawns, and dropping pond levels across the state, with burn bans in place. In Missouri, there were reports of dry ponds in the Bootheel. Temperatures were warmer than normal across most of the region, with anomalies reaching 8 to 12 degrees above normal over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Soils continued to dry in the Ohio Valley. According to USDA statistics, 68% of the topsoil in Indiana was short or very short of moisture; this was an increase of 12% compared to last week. The statistics were 55% in Ohio (an increase of 12% compared to last week), 52% in Kentucky (up 9%), and 30% in Michigan (up 16%). The rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley improved soil moisture, but not by much. In Iowa, 73% of the topsoil moisture was still short to very short, 70% in Minnesota, 60% in Wisconsin, and 58% in Missouri.
AXUS74 KARX 281353
DGTARX
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-051200-
Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
854 am CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
...Above-Normal Rainfall Causes Some Improvements in the Drought...
Latest Modernized NWS La Crosse, WI Drought Information Statement
(DGT) link...
https://www.weather.gov/media/arx/DGT/DGT_ARX_09282023.pdf
NWS La Crosse, WI drought web page...
https://www.weather.gov/arx/drought
You can provide feedback at...
www.surveymonkey.com/r/ExpModernizedDGT
$$
Boyne
AXUS74 KARX 281353
DGTARX
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-051200-
Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
854 am CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
...Above-Normal Rainfall Causes Some Improvements in the Drought...
Latest Modernized NWS La Crosse, WI Drought Information Statement
(DGT) link...
https://www.weather.gov/media/arx/DGT/DGT_ARX_09282023.pdf
NWS La Crosse, WI drought web page...
https://www.weather.gov/arx/drought
You can provide feedback at...
www.surveymonkey.com/r/ExpModernizedDGT
$$
Boyne
AXUS73 KOAX 281608
DGTOAX
IAC071-085-129-133-137-145-155-165-NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-
039-053-055-067-095-097-107-109-119-127-131-133-139-141-147-151-
153-155-159-167-173-177-179-051615-
Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1108 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN DROUGHT STATUS THIS WEEK...
.SYNOPSIS:
Severe Drought (D2) (or worse) remains in place over the majority
of the area.
A new graphical Drought Information Statement is now available
online in a PDF format. This statement can be found at:
https://weather.gov/oax/DroughtInformationStatement
Additional drought information can be found at:
https://weather.gov/oax/drought
.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:
This product will be updated October 26th or sooner if drought
conditions change significantly.
.RELATED WEB SITES:
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses:
US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
Additional water and river information:
NWS: https://water.weather.gov
OWP: https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:
The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA's
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites,
State Cooperative Extension Services, the USDA, USACE and the
USGS.
.CONTACT INFORMATION:
If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement, please contact:
National Weather Service
6707 North 288th Street
Valley, NE 68064-9443
Phone...402-359-5166
[email protected]
$$
AXUS73 KFSD 212128
DGTFSD
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-MNC033-063-081-083-
101-105-117-133-NEC043-051-SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043-
053-061-067-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-
282130-
Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
428 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023
...RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY SLOW OR IMPROVE
EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...
.SYNOPSIS:
For local drought information, including graphical support, please
visit our website at weather.gov/fsd/drought and for our latest
drought PDF visit weather.gov/fsd/droughtinformationstatement.
.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:
This product will be updated by late October or sooner if drought
conditions change significantly.
.RELATED WEB SITES:
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses:
US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC):
https://mrcc.illinois.edu
High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC):
https://hprcc.unl.edu
South Dakota State Climatologist/Climate and Weather Information:
https://climate.sdstate.edu
Minnesota State Climatology Office:
http://climate.umn.edu
Iowa Climatology Bureau:
https://iowaagriculture.gov/climatology-bureau
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Northwestern Division
Missouri River Basin Water Management Division:
https://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc
Additional water and river information:
NWS: https://water.weather.gov
OWP: https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:
The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites,
state cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS.
.CONTACT INFORMATION:
If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement, please contact:
National Weather Service - Sioux Falls, SD
26 West Weather Lane
Sioux Falls, SD 57104
Phone: 605-330-4247
$$