MONITOR

Latest drought monitor over the midwest

OUTLOOKs



Monthly drought outlook


Streamflow


Map of below normal 7-day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year (Iowa)


PRECIP. NEEDED TO END

Amount of precipitation needed to end drought

PALMER DROUGHT INDEX

Drought severity index by division

DEPARTURES

4 month precipitation departures

STATISTICS

Week Date None Abnormally Dry Moderate Severe Extreme Exceptional DSCI
Current 2021-06-08 11.04 88.96 56.67 9.76 0.00 0.00 155
Last Week 2021-06-01 37.88 62.12 37.08 7.62 0.00 0.00 107
Three Months Ago 2021-03-09 45.12 54.88 26.95 10.08 2.93 0.00 95
Start of Calendar Year 2020-12-29 37.84 62.16 36.35 17.59 4.03 0.00 120
Start of Water Year 2020-09-29 30.56 69.44 46.89 22.57 0.00 0.00 139
One Year Ago 2020-06-02 92.21 7.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8

DISCUSSION

Warm and dry conditions dominated the West while the southern Plains and South recorded the most precipitation for the week as well as cooler than normal temperatures. Temperatures were 3-6 degrees below normal over much of the southern Plains, and into the lower Mississippi Valley. Warmer than normal temperatures dominated from California to the Dakotas with departures of 9-12 degrees above normal and even higher in the northern Plains. With the active pattern continuing over the southern Plains, conditions have flipped over the last several weeks from one of drought to ample precipitation. A reassessment of conditions in several places in the West and northern Plains led to improvements, in light of some of the wetter conditions recently.

Forecast

Over the next 5-7 days, it is anticipated that the best rains will be over the South, Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic with some relief continuing in the northern Plains. Most all of the West remains dry, especially in the southwest, with some rain possible in the northwest. Above-normal temperatures will dominate the country with most areas from the West into the Midwest anticipating above-normal temperatures. Near-normal temperatures in the Southeast as well along the West Coast are expected.

The 6-10 day outlooks show the high probability of above-normal temperatures over most of the country from the Midwest and southern Plains to the West. Cooler than normal temperatures are anticipated in the East and to the Gulf Coast as well as into the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas. Below-normal precipitation is anticipated over most of the country, with the highest probabilities in the Midwest, northern Plains, northern Rocky Mountains and into the Great Basin. The highest probabilities of above-normal precipitation are along the Gulf Coast, northern Alaska and in Arizona.

Midwest

Temperatures were cooler than normal in the southern extent of the region and well above normal in the north. Departures were 9-12 degrees above normal in Minnesota and Wisconsin while they were 3 degrees below normal in southern Missouri and Illinois. Outside of western Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana and into northern Ohio, the rest of the region was drier than normal for the week, with very little rain at all in the upper Midwest. With the short term being quite dry and warm, drought expanded and intensified in much of the region this week. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanded in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, where almost the entire region of each state saw degradation. Michigan had a large expansion of severe drought and moderate drought as well as an expansion of abnormally dry conditions in the upper peninsula. Some slight expansion of abnormally dry and moderate drought took place over northern portions of Illinois and Indiana while some abnormally dry conditions were removed from Indiana and Kentucky.