Dry weather continued this week across much of the central U.S., especially from the southern Great Plains to the Mississippi River Valley and Corn Belt. Flash drought conditions were occurring across a large area spanning from Texas northeastward to Oklahoma and southern Kansas, southern Missouri, Arkansas, northern Mississippi and portions of far western Tennessee. Due to the drier- and warmer-than-normal weather in most of these areas, drought and abnormal dryness expanded and intensified in many areas, as widespread adverse impacts to agriculture continued and fire danger continued to grow in some areas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some locally heavy, dotted parts of the Northeast and Southeast regions, leading to localized improvements to ongoing drought or abnormal dryness. Some areas that missed out on the rains saw conditions worsen. Hot and dry weather continued near the borders of the Dakotas with Minnesota, leading to worsening drought conditions. Widespread improvements occurred in some areas from Wyoming and the plains of eastern Colorado northeast into the Nebraska Sandhills and southern South Dakota, where either heavy rainfall this week improved conditions or conditions were reassessed following recent heavier rains. Recent hot and dry weather, combined with a lack of winter snowpack, led to the expansion of moderate drought in northern California. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly in eastern Puerto Rico led to a few improvements there, though widespread severe and extreme drought continued across much of Puerto Rico. Recent rainfall led to the removal of short-term moderate drought from Alaska’s Central Interior.

Forecast

Through the evening of Monday, Sept. 7, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting dry weather to continue across much of the central and south-central U.S., especially from southeast Nebraska through Oklahoma, Arkansas and western north Texas into southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico and Colorado. Heavier precipitation amounts through Monday evening will likely be confined to parts of the southeastern and northern Lower 48. Heavy rain is forecasted, or occurring on Wednesday afternoon, in east-central and southeast Texas, while the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard pass through. Heavier rain is also forecast across the central and eastern Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. Rain amounts from southern Louisiana to near Panama City may approach 1-2 inches, while heavier rain amounts, locally 2-3 inches or more, are forecast in the Florida Peninsula. Heavier precipitation amounts, mostly in the 0.75-2 inch range, are also forecast in parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Idaho, northern parts of Montana and North Dakota, and from Minnesota southeastward across Wisconsin and the lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlooks, covering Sept. 8-12, favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S. The highest confidence for above-normal temperatures is centered around Kansas City and the mid-lower Missouri River Valley southward to the central and western Gulf Coast. Near-normal temperatures are favored in the western half of the West, with below-normal temperatures slightly favored in western Nevada and adjacent parts of California and Oregon. Near- or below-normal temperatures are also favored in central and northern New England. Above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Great Plains and western U.S., especially from the Continental Divide into the Great Basin and in northern Minnesota and environs. Above-normal precipitation is also slightly favored in east-central Florida. The forecast favors drier-than-normal weather in the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys and from Lake Erie to southern parts of the Northeast.

In Hawaii, both precipitation and temperatures are expected to be above normal for Sept. 8–12. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across large parts of Alaska, except for the northwest portion of the state and the central Aleutian Islands. Above-normal temperatures are favored in southeast and central Alaska and in the central Aleutian Islands, while near-normal temperatures are favored in northeast and southwest Alaska and the eastern Aleutian Islands.

Midwest

Dry weather occurred across much of the southern half of the Midwest region this week. This led to localized development or expansion of abnormal dryness in Illinois and Kentucky, and widespread degradation of conditions in Missouri, especially in south-central and southwest Missouri. Fire danger and drought impacts to agriculture and other vegetation continued to worsen in southwest Missouri and neighboring Arkansas, leading to degrading conditions across much of this area. Drought conditions also worsened in west-central Minnesota, where short- and long-term precipitation deficits mounted. Temperatures in the eastern half of the region were generally within 2-4 degrees of normal, while much of Minnesota, Iowa and western Missouri were 2-6 degrees warmer than normal. Scattered rains fell across parts of the Upper Midwest, locally exceeding 2 inches but mostly depositing a half inch or less of rain.