The very wet fall continued across the southwest quarter of the contiguous U.S. to end October. Based on the additional heavy precipitation (more than 1 inch) from October 27-November 2 and a positive shift in the long-term metrics since September, a broad 1-category improvement was made to the Southwest and Great Basin. Although short-term drought has ended, lingering long-term drought remains designated for parts of these areas. The remnants of Hurricane Vance from the East Pacific brought drought-improving precipitation to western and central Texas. At the start of November, heavy precipitation prompted improvements to the Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Drought coverage continued its late summer and fall decline across Florida. Drought expanded and intensified for parts of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Alaska and Hawaii remain drought-free, while drought continues to improve across Puerto Rico.

Forecast

A much drier multi-day period (Nov 5-9) and more typical for fall is forecast for a majority of the lower 48 states. A cold front will trigger a period of wet weather along the East Coast with the heaviest amounts (more than one inch) from the coastal Mid-Atlantic north to southeastern New England. Along the tail end of this front, heavy precipitation may occur across the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The only other area forecast to receive significant precipitation is the coastal Pacific Northwest.

By mid-November, there is an increasing chance that an atmospheric river affects the West Coast. The NWS 6-10 day outlook (valid Nov 10-14) depicts more than a 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation for much of California and the Pacific Northwest. The largest probabilities (> 70%) are forecast across northern California and southwestern Oregon. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across the Great Basin, Southwest, Rio Grande Valley, and Florida. Below-normal precipitation is more likely across the Northern to Central Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The enhanced Pacific flow strongly favors above-normal temperatures for nearly all of the contiguous U.S. which is typical for a strong El Nino during the fall.

Midwest

Widespread D2 to D3 continues across southern Missouri and 60 to 90-day SPEI along with soil moisture supported an expansion of those drought categories in the southern third of the state. Increasing 30 to 60-day precipitation deficits, declining soil moisture, and the NDMC short-term blend resulted in a 1-category degradation across Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Conversely, unusually heavy precipitation (widespread amounts of 1.5 inches+) for this time of year led to a broad 1-category improvement for much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Please note that short-term drought has ended for nearly all of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.