Active weather delivered heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms east of the Rockies, with a few exceptions. Some of the heaviest rain, locally 4 to 8 inches or more, fell from portions of the central and southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, leading to pockets of flash flooding and lowland flooding. At least five flood-related fatalities were reported in Kentucky and Tennessee. Exceptions to the wet pattern included the western Gulf Coast region, parts of the Southeast, and an area stretching from the east-central Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. At the start of the drought-monitoring period, hot, dry weather dominated the West. However, a pattern change soon delivered cooler weather across the western U.S., along with widespread Northwestern precipitation. Wet snow blanketed some high-elevation sites in the northern Rockies. During the transition from hot to cool weather, gusty winds and low humidity levels favored wildfire ignition and rapid expansion, especially in portions of the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners States. At the end of June, more than a dozen active Western wildfires had scorched more than 10,000 acres of vegetation apiece, with the largest being the 94,000-acre Cottonwood Fire near Beaver, Utah. On June 28, three federal firefighters perished in the Knowles Fire, west of Grand Junction, Colorado.

Forecast

Hot, humid weather will persist through the Independence Day weekend in most areas along and east of a line from the southern High Plains into the upper Midwest. Some of the most extreme heat will affect the middle Atlantic States, parts of which will experience multiple days with triple-digit (100-degree) heat. Although the Midwest will remain hot, temperatures in most areas will barely reach stressful thresholds (95°F of higher) for corn and soybeans entering the weather-sensitive reproductive stage of development. Furthermore, many Midwestern crops are progressing through the hot spell with adequate to locally surplus soil moisture. Meaningful precipitation during the next 5 days should be limited to parts of Florida’s peninsula and the upper Midwest; both areas could see 1 to 4 inches, with locally higher totals. Other areas of the central and eastern U.S. should receive spotty thunderstorms, while little or no rain will accompany a Western warming trend.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for July 7 – 11 calls for the likelihood of hotter-than-normal weather nationwide, except for near-normal temperatures along and near the Pacific Coast, extending as far south as central California. Meanwhile, odds will be tilted toward near- or above-normal rainfall across most of the country, with drier-than-normal conditions expected to be limited to the Great Basin and environs.

Midwest

Torrential rainfall struck the southern tier of the region, easing or eradicating drought. Parts of Kentucky were especially hard hit by flash flooding. Some of the heaviest rain fell on June 27, when daily-record totals at official airport observation sites included 3.06 inches in Evansville, Indiana, and 2.34 inches in Bowling Green, Kentucky. By June 28, the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicated that topsoil moisture in agricultural regions was rated 39% surplus in Illinois, along with 37% in Missouri and 34% in Indiana. Midwestern summer crops remained mostly in good shape, with roughly two-thirds of the U.S. corn (67%) and soybeans (65%) rated in good to excellent condition on June 28, according to USDA. However, patchy dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) existed across the upper Midwest, with rain trimming drought coverage in some areas but bypassing others.