FXUS63 KMPX 270615
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
115 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rainfall and a few thunderstorms are expected late
  this afternoon through the overnight hours.

- Saturday will be drier, but rain will return for the second
  half of the weekend. 

- Our active pattern will remain in place as we head into May 
  with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Our first round of rain from this morning is exiting eastern 
Minnesota and heading into northwestern Wisconsin early this 
afternoon. Further south and west, a new line of showers and 
thunderstorms is moving across southwestern Minnesota. Some hail has 
been reported with these storms across northwest Iowa, but as they 
continue into Minnesota, they will outrun the instability to our 
south. CAMs show this second line of showers and storms filling in 
from far northeastern South Dakota down through central Iowa as they 
move northeastward across the MPX area and lose some of their punch. 
There is a threat for some hail with any of the stronger storms, 
particularly across southern Minnesota, but these storms are not 
expected to be severe. This wave will move into central Minnesota 
and western Wisconsin by late this afternoon with yet another on its 
heels. If we were to see any severe hail, it would be with this 
third line of storms as the warm front over Iowa continues to lift 
northward. However, confidence is low that this warm front will make 
it into Minnesota by this evening, limiting the chances for severe 
weather. In any case, rain is still expected area-wide through 
tonight with an additional quarter to half inch (with locally higher 
amounts) through Saturday morning. 

Rain will end by mid morning across much of the area as the surface 
low slides overhead. The aforementioned associated warm front will 
lead to quite a temperature spread from western Minnesota in the mid 
to upper 50s for highs to near 70 in western Wisconsin. Cloud cover 
will stick around but winds will let up a bit before we find 
ourselves on the backside of this system with another surface 
low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains on 
Sunday morning. This will be another widespread 0.75"-1.5" rain 
event through much of the day. Thunderstorm wise, we will again 
find ourselves on the wrong side of the warm front with any 
severe chances remaining to our south and east. 

As we head into the final days of April, we'll warm up and dry out a 
bit. Monday will still be on the cooler side with breezy west winds 
and mostly cloudy skies as the low continues on into northern 
Minnesota before southerly flow ramps up overnight and into Tuesday, 
sending highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s. More showers are 
possible Tuesday ahead of a cold front as a quick moving shortwave 
moves along the International Border. Shower chances linger through 
the middle of the week with continued breezy winds and temperatures 
in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Surface low over SW MN now will be heading for north central WI
through the morning. The last round of rain with this system is
already lifting through the MKT area. It will follow the low
north and each site will be dry for the rest of Saturday once
this batch of showers moves through. With the low moving
overhead, cigs are a bit tricky. We'll likely see LIFR
conditions immediately within and to the north of west of the
low, with a wedge of drier air to the east of the low trying to
clear things out. MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU would be in line for seeing a
brief period of VFR cigs as the low passes to the west of each
site, though satellite trends have shown this area of clearing 
filling back in across northern IA, so it's hard to say if we'll
see much relief from the IFR cigs this morning. As the low 
lifts north of the area, we will see cigs improve into the top 
half of the MVFR range, with a brief period of VFR cigs possible
this evening before cigs fill back in ahead of our next low for
Sunday.

KMSP...Surface low will pass between MSP and STC overnight,
which means wind directions will swing through the south on
their way over the the west for Saturday. Expect rain to be done
at MSP by 10z. We could see some showers prior to 12z Sunday,
but rain really looks to hold off until Sunday morning. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind ENE 15-20G25-30 kts. 
MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind WSW 15-20G30 kts. 
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15G20-25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...MPG