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FXUS63 KMPX 281131
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of light wintry precipitation Friday.

- There remains low confidence for the Sunday-Tuesday storm
  system with considerable spread in model guidance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Skies are clear regionwide this morning and winds have dropped
off across western Minnesota where temperatures are in the
single digits and low teens. Farther east where winds are
steadier, temperatures remain in the low 20s - relatively mild
all things considering. Clear skies will prevail through the
afternoon, as will the light winds. Highs will reach the upper
20s in western MN and low to mid 30s east. 

A shortwave will track from Nevada today to North Dakota 
Friday with another impulse over the Mid Missouri Valley. 
Precipitation will break out across central and northern MN
early Friday, but should develop farther south into eastern MN
and WI by evening as the two waves begin to phase. Temperatures
aloft will be warm to start with the risk of any snow low.
Depending on surface temperature and timing of precipitation
development, there could be a brief period of light freezing 
rain. Significant impacts are not expected as any amounts would
be very light. All precip will turn to rain by afternoon as
temperatures reach the 30s and 40s. 

That passing system will lay a baroclinic zone across the
central Plains to lower Great Lakes Saturday and Sunday. A
longwave trough over the West Coast will slowly come onshore
late this weekend and spawn an area of low pressure over the
central Plains by Monday. The track of such low exhibits a lot
of spread, and thus there is considerable uncertainty with how
far north any precip would make it across the Upper Midwest.
Deterministic guidance would keep it all south, but several 
ensemble members from the GEFS and EPS are quite heavy with QPF.
PoPs remain in the ballpark of 50 percent, which is reasonable 
given the spread. This system looks milder than the last one and
doesn't have arctic air to tap into so most precip should be in
the form of rain. However, as with any spring system, there 
could be a stripe of snow if the band is heavy enough.

Ridging will build back to the central U.S. midweek and
temperatures should return to above normal levels late in the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Clear skies through today, then increasing high clouds this
evening. West winds will become east across western MN this
evening, light and variable east.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-RA. Wind E 15-20 kts. 
SAT...Chc MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. 
SUN...Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind N to NE 5-10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff