FXUS63 KMPX 091047
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
547 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost likely across northwest Wisconsin Thursday night.

- Scattered thunderstorms, a few strong, Friday afternoon across
  eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Above-normal temperatures this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Light showers linger along The Iowa/Minnesota border overnight
from last night's convection over northwest Iowa/southwest
Minnesota. Development of more isolated showers is expected this
morning across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin as more
upper-level support moves over the area but any rainfall will be
light. Skies will gradually clear out across southern Minnesota
& western Wisconsin this afternoon with temperatures reaching 
the mid-60s. Northeast winds will allow for cold air off of Lake
Superior to advect into northwest Wisconsin tonight, with 
further cooling of this airmass overnight with clear skies & 
winds becoming calm. Frost is likely overnight across northwest 
Wisconsin (Barron/Rusk/Chippewa counties) where lows are 
forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s, so take action to 
protect any sensitive vegetation.

A cold front moves through the area Friday afternoon, and its
passage during peak heating will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon & early evening
from eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Only a few 
hundred J/kg of surface- based CAPE is expected ahead of the 
front, but shear values of 35-40 kts along the front suggests a 
few organized thunderstorms could develop. Forecast soundings 
suggest it shouldn't be too difficult for thunderstorms to mix 
down wind gusts of 35-40 kts, & isolated severe wind gusts can't
be ruled out with the strongest storms. Brief downpours could
lead to rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5" with any storms. Behind
the front across western Minnesota, northwest winds gusting 
over 30 mph & RH values approaching 30% will lead to elevated 
fire weather conditions during the afternoon. 

The persistent cyclonic flow & cooler temperatures aloft moves
east of the Great lakes over the weekend, with rising heights
over the central CONUS leading to rising temperatures this
weekend into next week. Temperatures in the 80s look likely
Sunday, with highs generally in the mid 70s continuing into next
week. Drier northwest flow aloft persists into early next week,
with possibly some increased rain chances Sunday night as 
models depict a shortwave passing through the region. The jet 
stream becomes more active midweek, with ensemble guidance 
highlighting Wednesday as the next chance for widespread 
appreciable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions through the period, with stratocumulus spreading
over MSP/MKT/RNH/EAU this morning into mid-afternoon. Isolated 
showers are likely this morning over western Wisconsin but no 
impacts to ceiling or vis are anticipated. Skies clear out late
this afternoon & remain mostly clear overnight. Northeast winds
today will be around 10 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts. 
Winds diminish after sunset & gradually become southerly to 
southwesterly by tomorrow morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 15G30 kts. 
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts. 
SUN...VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts. 
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ETA