FXUS61 KBGM 070647
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
247 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Brief high pressure will result in a sunny pleasant day. 
However, a warm front tonight will bring showers and a chance 
of thunder, followed by a cold front Wednesday which may produce
isolated yet gusty afternoon thunderstorms. On-and-off chances 
for rain will continue later this week as multiple disturbances 
pass through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 AM Update... 
After a quick respite today, a warm front tonight followed by a
cold front Wednesday will bring showers and a chance of 
thunder. Main near term concern is the potential for isolated 
yet gusty severe thunderstorms Wednesday.

Shield of high thin clouds is finally pressing off to the east,
allowing for radiational cooling of a dry air mass in Central
New York yet still some residual boundary layer moisture
persists in Northeast Pennsylvania along with a few clouds. As
such, there is quite a contrast in temperatures during the
predawn hours, from near 40 degrees north to upper 50s south. A
few spots may even find upper 30s in our typically coldest spots
such as the upper Susquehanna tributary headwaters.

High pressure will pass over the region today, with mixing down
of low dewpoints from the very dry air above the boundary layer.
That and full sunshine should help maximize diurnal range to
highs of around 70-80 degrees, and minimum relative humidity in
the upper 20s to upper 30s percent range except still 40s
percent in higher terrain surrounding the Wyoming Valley. Winds
will be very light.

The weak high exits quickly, as a warm front surges into the
area overnight well ahead of low pressure approaching from the
Upper Midwest. There will be instability aloft, so the quickly
advancing showers may be accompanied by elevated embedded
thunderstorms. Rain amounts tonight are forecast to range from a
tenth or two of an inch south and central to more like three to
four tenths of an inch for the NY Thruway counties.

Wednesday is starting to look fairly interesting. The warm
frontal zone will lift to our northern zones in the morning,
laying a track for the approaching low to zip through the area
during the afternoon followed by a sagging cold front. This 
will be forced by a jet maximum aloft which will advect in an 
elevated mixed layer, with steep mid to upper level lapse rates 
and potential for top-heavy Convective Available Potential 
Energy (CAPE). Source region of that elevated unstable mixed 
layer is all the way from the Four Corners region. The risk for 
severe thunderstorms is there, yet conditional, because coverage
will be limited by the amount of dry air aloft even if 
unstable. Model soundings suggest biggest threat will be cold-
pool driven gusty winds, with an inverted-V profile south of the
frontal zone which will promote good mixing down. Unidirectional
deep shear will also be quite strong; flow to the tune of 60-80
knots at 6 km. Top-heavy CAPE from the elevated mixed layer 
aloft also points to a risk of hail as well. Since almost the
whole area will get into the warm sector, highs Wednesday will 
be in the 70s to lower 80s except it may struggle to get out of 
the 60s in northern Oneida County.

Again, though cells may be isolated in coverage Wednesday
afternoon, they could be potent with damaging gusts and hail 
while also moving along very quickly due to strong deep flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will push through the area Wednesday morning. The
best lift and moisture should translate north and east of our
region. However, enough lift and moisture near the boundary look
to be present for a few showers and thunderstorms. The
environment looks highly sheared with some instability as well.
A fairly impressive wedge of mid-level dry air and steep low 
level lapse rates could factor in with wind and hail potential.
So while coverage looks lackluster what develops could become 
strong to perhaps severe. Wednesday should be the warmest day 
well into the 70's. After the cold frontal passage Wednesday 
enough of a colder airmass should advect in for lows to fall to 
around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very active pattern continues with another low pressure system
moving through with a broad trough in place. Widespread rain 
looks to develop ahead of a warm front during the day Thursday 
than taper off to showers as the main low pressure system moves 
through Friday. Yet another system with some showers then 
follows for the weekend. Cooler with highs in the 50's and 60's 
and lows in the 40's.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through today with high pressure in
control. There will be subtle diurnally-influenced fluctuations
in wind direction, with speeds mostly under 5 knots. A warm 
front will quickly approach the area this evening which will 
cause a ceiling to develop, though above 15000 feet. Showers and
embedded thunder are forecast to sweep southwest to northeast
across the terminals with associated restrictions later tonight
after 06Z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely 
with rain showers along a warm front; embedded thunder possible.

Wednesday afternoon-early evening...While mostly VFR, isolated 
yet gusty thunderstorms will be possible.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Periods of showers with some
restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region,
especially Thursday-Friday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MDP