FXUS61 KBGM 190702
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
302 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fog and clouds will be slowly dissipate through the morning 
hours with more sun than clouds by mid afternoon and 
temperatures rising into the 70s. Tomorrow is looking even 
warmer with dry weather continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
245 AM Update:

This near term forecast is the first in a while where I have 
not had to add any chances of precipitation to anywhere in the 
forecast area. Upper level ridging has build in with water vapor
imagery showing dry air advecting in aloft. With day time 
heating today, some of that dry air will mix down to the 
surface. Cloud cover this afternoon was lowered from what model 
guidance has as self destructive sunshine is less likely as 
deeper mixing will just mix in more dry air rather than lead to 
more cloud development. Some of the models like the NAM want to 
put in surface CAPE and a few isolated thunderstorms this 
afternoon but looking at forecast soundings, it looks like the 
model is keeping the boundary layer a bit too moist. Still with 
dew points in the mid to upper 50s and temperatures in the mid 
to upper 70s, some of the higher terrain like the Catskills 
could assist in sparking off a shower or two this afternoon but 
confidence was too low to add showers to the forecast. 

Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational 
cooling once again and it being post greenup, patchy valley fog 
will likely develop again in the river valleys. 

Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to 
rise towards 580 dm. With ridging in place, a stout subsidence 
inversion around 700 mb will likely keep the region capped 
despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat 
and humidity. Once again there is a small chance that terrain 
will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the 
cap but odds are low. High pressure and clear skies continue 
into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

A large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region 
Tuesday. A weak disturbance ahead of the front is coming into better 
focus, passing through central New York on Tuesday. However, 
moisture and lift are both limited so if any shower or thunderstorm 
it would be brief and isolated. The NBM has caught up to what what 
the modeled boundary layer temperatures would yield so confidence is 
increasing that highs will get well up into the 80's. Continued warm 
air advection should keep temperatures in the 60's for lows Tuesday 
night.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Continued warming trend through Wednesday given the warm air 
advection. Most locations should rise well into the 80's with a few 
locations close to 90 on Wednesday as the NBM has caught on to the 
overall pattern. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values 
should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60's at night. 

A frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday and 
Thursday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks 
present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal 
passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently 
modeled to be around 1,000 J/KG each afternoon and evening so some 
thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still some timing 
differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with 
the frontal timing. Continued to lean more toward the slower ECMWF 
suite at this time. Given the timing differences it is still to 
early to determine the potential for any strong to severe 
thunderstorms.  

The front should clear the area Thursday night with high pressure 
building back into the region. Temperatures look to be knocked down 
a bit back into the 50's for lows and 70's for highs through 
Saturday. 

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low stratus has cleared from SYR, RME and ELM, but remain at
BGM, ITH, and AVP. ELM has developed fog already that will
likely last to around 12Z. RME will likely start to see patchy
fog in the next few hours. SYR will have the toughest time to
get fog to develop but given the low level moisture, some
IFR restrictions are possible so put in a tempo for just before
sunrise. 

The stratus has been IFR at BGM and ITH with the elevation of
the airports and AVP has been holding on to MVFR cigs for now.
As winds aloft become a little more northerly at AVP, the cigs
will likely drop to IFR into 12Z. The stratus will likely hold
through the rest of the night but if it clears, fog development
will occur quickly keeping mostly IFR or worse restrictions into
12Z.

Tomorrow is looking VFR once all the fog clears out as dry air
will scatter out any remaining cigs. Winds will be light and
variable with high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some showers 
possible late Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG