FXUS61 KBGM 261704
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
104 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control today with calm and dry conditions 
expected. A warm front swings through the region Saturday through 
Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming 
trend. Another frontal system pushes through the region early 
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

100 pm update...

Skies are sunny, except for a few pop up cumulus clouds over
the Poconos and thin high level cirrus over east-central NY.
Temperatures are rising as expected into the 50s and near 60 as
of 1 PM. Dew points were slightly lower than forecast, in the
10s to mid-20s out there...this is leading to RH levels already
in the 20s to low 30s percent. Winds are light and variable
under 10 mph out there.

1000 am update...

No significant changes to the near term forecast. Minor
adjustments to temperatures today and tonight to show a larger
diurnal range considering the clear/sunny skies and latest bias
corrected model data. Tweaks were made to PoPs, QPF and Sky
cover for tomorrow's weak frontal system. Overall, it still
looks to bring up to a tenth of an inch of light rain to much of
the forecast area during the afternoon hours.

630 am update...
A cool start this morning with temperatures ranging in the mid 
20s to low 30s. Minor changes were made to update temperatures 
with current observation. Previous forecast remains on track at 
this time

300 am update...
Surface high pressure is centered over our region this morning 
with calm and dry conditions persisting for one more day. Upper 
level ridge aloft moves into our region allowing for southerly 
flow to return. Under this pattern temperatures will climb into 
the upper 50s to low 60s with plenty of sunshine. High pressure 
shifts eastwards overnight with clouds beginning to fill in from
the east ahead of a warm front. With calm and mostly clear 
skies persisting for most of the night, lows will fall into the 
mid 30s to low 40s.

Precipitation chances begin to gradually increase Saturday morning 
with rain showers becoming more likely in the afternoon. Most model 
guidance show showers holding off until the afternoon with dry air 
in place for the morning. Used a blend of recent CAM models to work 
out the timing of these showers. Rainfall amounts will be light; 
less than a tenth of an inch. Despite dreary conditions southerly 
flow will keep highs near average in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Steady rain showers will continue through the afternoon and 
into the evening hours across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
We look to be firmly in a warm sector Saturday night through Monday. 
While the warm front stays to our north, enough moisture looks to be 
in place to continue a mention for isolated showers and even 
thunderstorms as the instability increases a bit as well. Modeled 
925 mb temperatures would indicate highs in the 70's Sunday and even 
the low 80's Monday. With the amount of moisture on the increase low 
temperatures may struggle to fall much below 60 Sunday night. The 
GFS has been giving the hint of the warm front becoming a backdoor 
cold front offering a cooler and showier outcome, till other model 
support is present will not trend the forecast in this
direction.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move 
through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to 
bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead 
of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around 
500-1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60's. In 
terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is 
modeled to be around 20-40 knots ahead of the front which may 
lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a 
gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front 
can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor
for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to 
monitor over the next several days. Overall, the trend is 
slightly weaker for these thunderstorms compared to yesterday. 

Overall this front is trending weaker as well not really bringing in 
much in the way of a cooling trend till the next front moves through 
on Thursday. With this slower solution, a few showers and 
thunderstorms remain possible through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR 
conditions expected at all terminals with mostly clear skies.
Light and variable winds transition south/southeast late morning 
remaining under 10 knots for the entire period. 


Outlook... 

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain 
showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES