FXUS61 KBGM 301045
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
645 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to dominate over the region, bringing
warm, dry, and mostly sunny weather across the area. We'll see
an increase in temperatures the rest of the week, with the
warmest temperatures on Friday being in the high-80s/low-90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 AM Update...

No major updates; populated in observations and blended the
ConsShort model through 18Z in order to remain consistent with
new model data.

400 AM Update...

Another quiet and warm summer-like day is expected across the
region. With a persistent high pressure overhead, temperatures
will warm up into the low- to mid-80s. Overnight tonight, clear
skies with southeasterly flow will drop overnight temperatures
into the mid- to high-40s in the NEPA and Catskills regions,
while Central NY sees overnight temperatures drop in the 
mid-50s. For Wednesday, weather will be very similar to today: 
low- to mid-80s, dry, and mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
400 AM Update...
Strong high pressure with upper level ridging continues through
the short term. With 500 mb heights over 580 dm and dry soils, 
blended in the NBM the for Thursdays and Fridays temperatures 
but kept the NBM mean for the lows. The upper level high begins 
to retrograde to the west Thursday night into Friday as the rex 
block breaks down. PWAT anomalies are below climatology with 
forecast soundings showing dry air above the boundary layer so 
precip chances have been kept below slight chance through 
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM Update...

The long term is finally looking a little more active as the 
low level moisture improves this weekend with a few mid level 
shortwaves moving through that could trigger some showers and 
thunderstorms. Given the dry conditions we have been 
experiencing recently for much of the Northeast, the chances of 
precipitation were lowered so that there is mostly slight 
chances of precipitation. Overall there is still no indication 
of a larger pattern switch yet that would give us better chances
of precipitation. Northerly flow with the upper level ridge to 
the west of us will help keep temperatures closer to seasonable 
averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure over the region will continue to bring VFR 
conditions to all terminals through the forecast period. 

Southeasterly winds may bring some periodic gusts up to 12-14
knots at times during the day Tuesday. 


Outlook...

Tonight...Smoke aloft from wildfires in the Canadian Maritimes 
may advect into the area tonight, but impacts to surface 
visibility are expected to be limited, though confidence is low.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...KL