FXUS61 KBGM 192249
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring rain showers to the area through this
evening. It will turn breezy and cooler for the weekend with 
some rain or even snow showers possible Saturday afternoon and 
evening. A dry stretch of weather is finally expected Sunday 
through Tuesday, with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

With the early evening update, cut back on precipitation
coverage given the radar and modeling trends throughout the
night. Forecast discussion below still mainly on track. 

255 PM Update:

A passing frontal boundary continues to bring some rain showers
to the area. An initial batch of light rain showers is quickly
moving east of I-81, but another batch of showers will be
entering the area from Western NY later this afternoon into this
evening. These light showers will move eastward through the area
overnight. Even though these showers will quickly move eastward,
plenty of low level moisture will result in lingering clouds and
area of drizzle. Lows tonight are expected to mainly be in the
40s.

The cold front exits the area to the east on Saturday, which
will result in initially mostly sunny skies in the morning.
However, a secondary shortwave, combined with diurnally-driven
instability will result in a resurgence of rain showers in the
afternoon. Enough cold air aloft may be present for small hail
or graupel to mix with these showers. Highs are expected to be
in the mid 40s to mid 50s, which on the cool side compared to
normal for this time of the year.

Saturday night, high pressure starts to build into the area.
This, combined with the loss of diurnal heating, will allow for
rain showers to quickly dissipate after sunset and skies to
clear. Lows are expected to be in the 30s for the majority of
the area, with some upper 20s possible in the usual colder spots
of the Catskills and northern Oneida county.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

Surface ridging and an upper level trough will be over the
region on Sunday. Brisk northwest flow regime will keep
temperatures on the cool side Sunday afternoon, with highs only
in the upper 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Those NW
winds will increase Sunday afternoon as a dry cold front drops
out of Canada, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. 

A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to move into the
region Sunday night, keeping temperatures in the upper 20s to
low 30s across the region. 

Cold air remains across most of the region Monday as the trough
stubbornly hangs around. Main changes made to NBM this period
was for surface dew points were decreased several degrees due to
the dry airmass overhead. RH values will likely dip into the mid
20 percent range during peak heating Monday afternoon. Also, NBM
winds are way overdone with the bulk of the model guidance
having a surface high pushing overhead, so wind gusts were 
reduced Monday afternoon. The center of the high will be over 
the region Monday night, which should allow for radiational 
cooling to drop temps into the low to mid 30s, even with warmer 
air aloft building into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
240 PM Update

No major changes have been made to the long term portion of the
forecast. Models continue to be consistent with the next storm 
system. This system is expected to move into the region 
sometime Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Guidance has some
minor timing differences, but overall agreement is good that a trough
will dig into the Great Lakes region, generating a surface low 
that will pass north of us. A surface cold front extending from
the low will bring rain showers across the region Wednesday. 

The GFS and some ensembles have a secondary shortwave that will
fill in behind this front as the overall trough pattern rotates
from positively to negatively tilted. This brings a reinforcing
shot of cold air into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. 
A rain/snow mix will be possible across the NE portion of the 
CWA as light showers hang around in this scenario. The center 
of the upper low/trough is overhead Thursday, and this will keep temps
cold with lingering rain/snow showers. However, it should be 
noted that the Euro pulls the upper trough/low out much faster 
with ridging building in Thursday, and this will drastically 
change the forecast if this pans out. For now, due to the 
uncertainty at the end of the week, decided to stay with the NBM
solution. The NBM has no PoPs at this time for Thursday, so
something to watch as the forecast progresses into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moving through the region will bring rain showers
and associated ceilings and/or visby restrictions this afternoon
into this evening. Occasional IFR ceilings will be possible, but
restrictions will mainly be MVFR to Fuel Alternate. Lingering 
post-frontal low ceilings are expected through most of the 
night, before conditions return to mainly VFR for Saturday.

Outlook... 

Saturday afternoon...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional/brief MVFR
restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals with scattered
showers.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...BJG