← Previous October 1, 2023 7:45 PM
ACUS01 KWNS 020046 SWODY1 SPC AC 020045 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and strong winds will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Latest water vapor imagery shows south-southwesterly mid-level flow over the southern High Plains, with a plume of moisture extending from eastern New Mexico northeastward into the central Plains. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the southwestern edge of this plume, mainly in eastern New Mexico. More isolated storms are in the western and northern Texas Panhandle. This activity is located along and near an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in eastern New Mexico early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. Rotating cells with isolated large hail would be possible in this environment with a few strong gusts also possible. However, lapse rates are not ideal for severe storms, and any threat will remain marginal this evening. ..Broyles.. 10/02/2023 $$