ACUS01 KWNS 020046
SWODY1
SPC AC 020045

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and strong winds
will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High
Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Latest water vapor imagery shows south-southwesterly mid-level flow
over the southern High Plains, with a plume of moisture extending
from eastern New Mexico northeastward into the central Plains.
Thunderstorms are ongoing along the southwestern edge of this plume,
mainly in eastern New Mexico. More isolated storms are in the
western and northern Texas Panhandle. This activity is located along
and near an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE
generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings in eastern New Mexico early this evening have 0-6 km shear
around 35 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. Rotating
cells with isolated large hail would be possible in this environment
with a few strong gusts also possible. However, lapse rates are not
ideal for severe storms, and any threat will remain marginal this
evening.

..Broyles.. 10/02/2023

$$