482 ACUS01 KWNS 100054 SWODY1 SPC AC 100052 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat continues across the upper Midwest tonight. Primary threat is isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Complex convective scenario exists across the upper Midwest into the upper Great Lakes tonight. Remnants of a long-lived thunderstorm complex, that developed over SD/NE Saturday evening, have progressed across southern MN into northern WI, where an MCV is evident over Iron County. The strongest storms are currently noted ahead of this feature immediately ahead of the MCV from extreme northern WI into the western UP of MI. This activity should spread downstream across much of western/central UP of MI with mostly a wind threat; although, a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Upstream, 00z soundings from MPX and OAX exhibit significant capping and veered low-level flow. Frontal convection that spread across eastern ND into northern MN has struggled to maintain intensity despite large-scale upper support. Latest satellite imagery does not suggest thunderstorm development is imminent along the immediate frontal zone. With veered low-level flow, severe development along the wind shift is somewhat conditional. However, an east-west band of deepening cu currently extends across southern MN. Over the last hour or so, several towers have attempted to glaciate along this zone. While MPX sounding was capped at 00z, frontal assistance may contribute to intensification later this evening. Will maintain SLGT risk across the upper Midwest, but organized severe is highly conditional given the strong cap with veered low-level flow. ..Darrow.. 08/10/2020 $$
