ACUS01 KWNS 100054
SPC AC 100052

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z


Severe threat continues across the upper Midwest tonight. Primary
threat is isolated damaging winds.

...Upper Midwest...

Complex convective scenario exists across the upper Midwest into the
upper Great Lakes tonight. Remnants of a long-lived thunderstorm
complex, that developed over SD/NE Saturday evening, have progressed
across southern MN into northern WI, where an MCV is evident over
Iron County. The strongest storms are currently noted ahead of this
feature immediately ahead of the MCV from extreme northern WI into
the western UP of MI. This activity should spread downstream across
much of western/central UP of MI with mostly a wind threat;
although, a brief tornado can not be ruled out.

Upstream, 00z soundings from MPX and OAX exhibit significant capping
and veered low-level flow. Frontal convection that spread across
eastern ND into northern MN has struggled to maintain intensity
despite large-scale upper support. Latest satellite imagery does not
suggest thunderstorm development is imminent along the immediate
frontal zone. With veered low-level flow, severe development along
the wind shift is somewhat conditional. However, an east-west band
of deepening cu currently extends across southern MN. Over the last
hour or so, several towers have attempted to glaciate along this
zone. While MPX sounding was capped at 00z, frontal assistance may
contribute to intensification later this evening. Will maintain SLGT
risk across the upper Midwest, but organized severe is highly
conditional given the strong cap with veered low-level flow.

..Darrow.. 08/10/2020