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ACUS01 KWNS 292114
SPC AC 292113

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z


Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail
and damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening in
parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota.

With current expectations in line with the ongoing outlook, no
appreciable changes appear necessary with this update.  For
additional short-term information, please refer to MCD 893 and 894.

..Goss.. 05/29/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023/

...Northern and Central Plains...
A weak upper trough remains in place over the northern and central
Plains states today, providing relatively cool temperatures aloft
and subtle large-scale forcing for ascent across the region.  This
will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorm development, and at
least some potential for hail and gusty winds.  Forecast soundings
throughout the region show moderately steep mid level lapse rates
and just enough bulk shear for marginal organization.  Therefore
will maintain the MRGL risk for much of the region.

One area that appears to have a slightly more favorable environment
is along a weak surface confluence zone that extends from southwest
to northeast NE.  A consensus of CAM solutions suggest this narrow
corridor will become convectively active by late afternoon. A 30-40
knot westerly mid-level jet will track across WY and nose into this
region this evening, enhancing the deep-layer shear and further
promoting a few severe storms, with a risk of large hail and
damaging winds for a few hours.

...South TX...
A weak upper trough is also tracking across TX today, where a very
moist and moderately unstable air mass will develop this afternoon
(MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg). Winds aloft are sufficiently strong to
aid in organization to any robust thunderstorms that can form. 
Given the 12z CAM solutions of widely scattered convection, will add
a MRGL risk area for afternoon/evening hail and wind risk.