← Previous May 29, 2023 4:13 PM Next →
ACUS01 KWNS 292114 SWODY1 SPC AC 292113 Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening in parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Discussion... With current expectations in line with the ongoing outlook, no appreciable changes appear necessary with this update. For additional short-term information, please refer to MCD 893 and 894. ..Goss.. 05/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023/ ...Northern and Central Plains... A weak upper trough remains in place over the northern and central Plains states today, providing relatively cool temperatures aloft and subtle large-scale forcing for ascent across the region. This will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorm development, and at least some potential for hail and gusty winds. Forecast soundings throughout the region show moderately steep mid level lapse rates and just enough bulk shear for marginal organization. Therefore will maintain the MRGL risk for much of the region. One area that appears to have a slightly more favorable environment is along a weak surface confluence zone that extends from southwest to northeast NE. A consensus of CAM solutions suggest this narrow corridor will become convectively active by late afternoon. A 30-40 knot westerly mid-level jet will track across WY and nose into this region this evening, enhancing the deep-layer shear and further promoting a few severe storms, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...South TX... A weak upper trough is also tracking across TX today, where a very moist and moderately unstable air mass will develop this afternoon (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg). Winds aloft are sufficiently strong to aid in organization to any robust thunderstorms that can form. Given the 12z CAM solutions of widely scattered convection, will add a MRGL risk area for afternoon/evening hail and wind risk. $$