ACUS48 KWNS 280847
SWOD48
SPC AC 280845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Southern Rockies to Southern Plains vicinity...

A period of increased severe potential may develop over portions of
the southern High Plains into central/southern TX Days 4-6/Wed-Fri
and possibly into the weekend. Latest guidance suggests a series of
western shortwave upper troughs will move across the
Southwest/northern Mexico toward the southern Rockies during this
time. This will bring enhanced west/southwesterly mid/upper flow to
portions of the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, seasonal
boundary-layer moisture will persist on south/southeasterly
low-level flow in response to surface lee troughing. Some evidence
among forecast guidance suggests another blocking pattern will
develop across the Southeast (though perhaps weaker than what has
persisted the past week or two). As a result of this overall
pattern, a corridor of severe potential could develop/persist over
the southern Plains vicinity for much of the period. That being
said, confidence in 15 percent or greater probabilities is low at
this time given the recent trend in guidance toward this solution
and forecast guidance notoriously performing poorly in
developing/breaking down blocking patterns, especially amid
low-amplitude systems. Trends will be monitored and severe
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 05/28/2023