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ACUS48 KWNS 280847 SWOD48 SPC AC 280845 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southern Rockies to Southern Plains vicinity... A period of increased severe potential may develop over portions of the southern High Plains into central/southern TX Days 4-6/Wed-Fri and possibly into the weekend. Latest guidance suggests a series of western shortwave upper troughs will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico toward the southern Rockies during this time. This will bring enhanced west/southwesterly mid/upper flow to portions of the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, seasonal boundary-layer moisture will persist on south/southeasterly low-level flow in response to surface lee troughing. Some evidence among forecast guidance suggests another blocking pattern will develop across the Southeast (though perhaps weaker than what has persisted the past week or two). As a result of this overall pattern, a corridor of severe potential could develop/persist over the southern Plains vicinity for much of the period. That being said, confidence in 15 percent or greater probabilities is low at this time given the recent trend in guidance toward this solution and forecast guidance notoriously performing poorly in developing/breaking down blocking patterns, especially amid low-amplitude systems. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman.. 05/28/2023