ACUS48 KWNS 290853
SWOD48
SPC AC 290852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will likely persist across portions of the southern
Plains vicinity through at least Day 5/Friday. A series of midlevel
shortwave troughs will eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico
into the southern/central High Plains during this time. Enhanced
southwesterly flow will provide adequate shear for organized
convection, while south/southeasterly low-level flow maintains
seasonal moisture across the region. Uncertainty remains in
convective coverage and exactly where a corridor of greater severe
potential will develop on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. This uncertainty is
largely driven by several periods of convection expected leading
into the extended period, and what impact that will have on location
of outflows, MCVs and airmass recovery. Timing is also still a bit
uncertain. Day 4/Thu may be somewhat lower coverage as one wave
ejects on Day 3/Wed before the next more focused wave ejects on Day
5/Fri. Despite these uncertainties, the overall pattern will support
at least isolated severe storms from southeast CO/southwest KS into
eastern NM and western OK/TX, and potentially into central TX during
the first half of the extended period. If trends are maintained,
severe probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. 

A lower-amplitude pattern then becomes more likely late in the
extended period around Day 6/Sat or Day 7/Sun, with stronger
westerly flow confined to south TX. Given this
weaker/lower-amplitude pattern, predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/29/2023