← Previous March 31, 2023 3:27 PM
FNUS28 KWNS 312029 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z An active fire-weather pattern will continue as a powerful mid-level trough moves through the U.S. during the extended period. As it deepens off the West Coast, westerly mid-level flow will support lee surface cyclone development in the central/southern High Plains. This will yield widespread elevated fire-weather conditions across the southern High Plains/central NM on D3/Sunday afternoon and evening. Highest confidence in critical conditions currently extends from east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle. A zone of critical conditions may also materialize farther south in West TX and southeastern NM, but confidence in 20+ mph winds there is lower. Convective precipitation may also influence any fire-weather areas on Sunday, but it seems likely that wetting rain will be mostly confined to areas east of the Rolling Plains. By D4/Monday-D5/Tuesday, a potent mid-level wave will move eastward through the Intermountain West and Central Plains. An attendant deep surface cyclone and broad wind field will develop and foster high-end, critical fire-weather conditions in portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Some uncertainty remains regarding the location of surface boundaries -- such as a dryline in OK/TX and surging cold front in KS -- that will influence the location of critical conditions, especially by D5/Tuesday. Multiple days of dry, windy conditions between now and then will also yield fuels becoming very supportive of initial attack and large-fire spread. After this wave passage, confidence decreases regarding overall pattern evolution and the location of any critical fire-weather areas for D6-8. Fuels should continue to become more supportive, but a less-progressive mid-level pattern may develop that supports extensive, westward moisture advection and a more tempered fire-weather threat. ..Flournoy/Bentley.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$