FNUS28 KWNS 192030

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

The forecast period begins with a weakening mid-level trough
ejecting into the southern Plains Day 3/Thursday, with a second
upper trough slowly moving across the western CONUS Days
4-6/Friday-Sunday, before ejecting into the Plains states Days
7-8/Monday-Tuesday. For Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday, cool conditions
across the central and northern CONUS, and relatively moist
conditions across the southern CONUS will limit widespread
significant wildfire-spread potential. As the upper trough begins to
approach the High Plains however, surface lee troughing may develop
across the central CONUS, supporting dry and breezy downslope
conditions across the southern High Plains. The greatest chance of
critically dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains
may be Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday, when stronger mid-level flow and
associated upper support overspreads the south-central CONUS.

At the moment, there is considerable disagreement among mid-range
guidance members regarding the exact timing of the mid-level trough
ejecting into the Plains states. If greater consistency is noted in
future guidance ejecting the trough into the Plains states during
the diurnal heating cycle, where boundary layer mixing will promote
potentially critically low RH, Critical probabilities may be
introduced in future forecasts.

..Squitieri.. 01/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...