FNUS28 KWNS 102029
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

An upper-level trough will be lifting northeastward through the
northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Thursday. A deep
lee cyclone/trough will develop in response. By the weekend,
upper-level ridging will build back into the central U.S. with
another upper-level trough expected to move into the West Coast late
Sunday into Monday. With the precipitation expected with the initial
trough this week, in combination with forecast precipitation with
the trough next week, fire weather concerns this weekend into next
week are fairly uncertain.

...Central/Northern Plains...
Strong surface winds are anticipated on Thursday as a deep surface
trough develops in the northern High Plains region. Winds of 15-25
mph (with areas of higher gusts) are possible given strong winds
should extend into the lowest 2-3 km. RH will likely be lowest along
the central/northern High Plains area where downslope drying will be
maximized. Farther east, RH is still expected to fall to near and
around 20-25%. Fine fuels will especially be supportive of fire
spread. Sustained critical conditions are expected where the
strongest mid-level winds and low-level jet will roughly overlap.
There is some uncertainty introduced by potential convection in the
surface trough, but dry/windy conditions should last long enough
before that convection develops. Critical conditions could occur
farther south and possibly farther east, but duration is not certain
and fuels are less receptive to the east.

...Eastern Great Basin...
Surface winds will likely be strong on Thursday in eastern Utah into
western Colorado. Given areas of recent rainfall and the overall
downward trends in ERC percentiles, the degree of fire weather
concern is rather uncertain. Despite dry and windy conditions,
highlights will be withheld pending updated fuel information
suggesting a greater concern.

...Parts of Upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley...
As Francine is forecast by NHC to move into the mid-Mississippi
Valley on Thursday, there is potential for surface winds to increase
in parts of Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Forecast soundings do show some
potential for at least some upper-level clouds. Depending on the
degree of surface heating and the surface pressure gradient, some
locally elevated fire weather appears possible given the dry fuels
in place.

..Wendt.. 09/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$