← Previous March 31, 2023 3:27 PM

FNUS28 KWNS 312029

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

An active fire-weather pattern will continue as a powerful mid-level
trough moves through the U.S. during the extended period. As it
deepens off the West Coast, westerly mid-level flow will support lee
surface cyclone development in the central/southern High Plains.
This will yield widespread elevated fire-weather conditions across
the southern High Plains/central NM on D3/Sunday afternoon and
evening. Highest confidence in critical conditions currently extends
from east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle. A zone of
critical conditions may also materialize farther south in West TX
and southeastern NM, but confidence in 20+ mph winds there is lower.

Convective precipitation may also influence any fire-weather areas
on Sunday, but it seems likely that wetting rain will be mostly
confined to areas east of the Rolling Plains.

By D4/Monday-D5/Tuesday, a potent mid-level wave will move eastward
through the Intermountain West and Central Plains. An attendant deep
surface cyclone and broad wind field will develop and foster
high-end, critical fire-weather conditions in portions of the
Southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Some uncertainty remains
regarding the location of surface boundaries -- such as a dryline in
OK/TX and surging cold front in KS -- that will influence the
location of critical conditions, especially by D5/Tuesday. Multiple
days of dry, windy conditions between now and then will also yield
fuels becoming very supportive of initial attack and large-fire

After this wave passage, confidence decreases regarding overall
pattern evolution and the location of any critical fire-weather
areas for D6-8. Fuels should continue to become more supportive, but
a less-progressive mid-level pattern may develop that supports
extensive, westward moisture advection and a more tempered
fire-weather threat.

..Flournoy/Bentley.. 03/31/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...