884 FNUS28 KWNS 192030 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The forecast period begins with a weakening mid-level trough ejecting into the southern Plains Day 3/Thursday, with a second upper trough slowly moving across the western CONUS Days 4-6/Friday-Sunday, before ejecting into the Plains states Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. For Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday, cool conditions across the central and northern CONUS, and relatively moist conditions across the southern CONUS will limit widespread significant wildfire-spread potential. As the upper trough begins to approach the High Plains however, surface lee troughing may develop across the central CONUS, supporting dry and breezy downslope conditions across the southern High Plains. The greatest chance of critically dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains may be Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday, when stronger mid-level flow and associated upper support overspreads the south-central CONUS. At the moment, there is considerable disagreement among mid-range guidance members regarding the exact timing of the mid-level trough ejecting into the Plains states. If greater consistency is noted in future guidance ejecting the trough into the Plains states during the diurnal heating cycle, where boundary layer mixing will promote potentially critically low RH, Critical probabilities may be introduced in future forecasts. ..Squitieri.. 01/19/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$
