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FNUS28 KWNS 281950

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

Fire weather concerns will likely remain limited to the southwestern
U.S. through the extended period where recent ensemble guidance
continues to show a weak signal for appreciable precipitation.
Long-range guidance also maintains a signal for anomalously
high-amplitude upper ridging over the central CONUS with an active
sub-tropical stream across northern Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico.
This will allow for a series of shortwave perturbations to propagate
along the international border that may support breezy winds across
AZ/NM. While localized elevated conditions will be possible each
day, a somewhat more robust wave appears likely during the
D4/Wednesday time frame across the Southwest that should support
more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southeast AZ into NM per
ensemble probabilities. Given the antecedent dry conditions and
little moisture return into the region prior to D5/Wednesday, fire
weather concerns appear probable (though confidence in the intensity
and coverage of the threat remains uncertain). Elsewhere across the
CONUS, warm and dry conditions are expected across the Midwest/Great
Lakes region, but weak flow under the upper ridge will limit the
potential for robust/widespread fire weather concerns.

..Moore.. 05/28/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...