FXUS63 KMPX 262351
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rainfall and a few thunderstorms are expected late
  this afternoon through the overnight hours.

- Saturday will be drier, but rain will return for the second
  half of the weekend. 

- Our active pattern will remain in place as we head into May 
  with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Our first round of rain from this morning is exiting eastern 
Minnesota and heading into northwestern Wisconsin early this 
afternoon. Further south and west, a new line of showers and 
thunderstorms is moving across southwestern Minnesota. Some hail has 
been reported with these storms across northwest Iowa, but as they 
continue into Minnesota, they will outrun the instability to our 
south. CAMs show this second line of showers and storms filling in 
from far northeastern South Dakota down through central Iowa as they 
move northeastward across the MPX area and lose some of their punch. 
There is a threat for some hail with any of the stronger storms, 
particularly across southern Minnesota, but these storms are not 
expected to be severe. This wave will move into central Minnesota 
and western Wisconsin by late this afternoon with yet another on its 
heels. If we were to see any severe hail, it would be with this 
third line of storms as the warm front over Iowa continues to lift 
northward. However, confidence is low that this warm front will make 
it into Minnesota by this evening, limiting the chances for severe 
weather. In any case, rain is still expected area-wide through 
tonight with an additional quarter to half inch (with locally higher 
amounts) through Saturday morning. 

Rain will end by mid morning across much of the area as the surface 
low slides overhead. The aforementioned associated warm front will 
lead to quite a temperature spread from western Minnesota in the mid 
to upper 50s for highs to near 70 in western Wisconsin. Cloud cover 
will stick around but winds will let up a bit before we find 
ourselves on the backside of this system with another surface 
low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains on 
Sunday morning. This will be another widespread 0.75"-1.5" rain 
event through much of the day. Thunderstorm wise, we will again 
find ourselves on the wrong side of the warm front with any 
severe chances remaining to our south and east. 

As we head into the final days of April, we'll warm up and dry out a 
bit. Monday will still be on the cooler side with breezy west winds 
and mostly cloudy skies as the low continues on into northern 
Minnesota before southerly flow ramps up overnight and into Tuesday, 
sending highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s. More showers are 
possible Tuesday ahead of a cold front as a quick moving shortwave 
moves along the International Border. Shower chances linger through 
the middle of the week with continued breezy winds and temperatures 
in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers and storms over central MN will continue to push north,
giving a brief break in precip early this evening. However, more
convection is expected to develop over IA and southern MN later
this evening as a surface low pushes northeast from eastern NE.
Mainly IFR is expected overnight as cigs drop below 1000 feet
but periods of LIFR are possible with any thunderstorms reducing
visibilities and cigs further. Rain should push off to our north
near or before sunrise Saturday morning with a slow improvement
of cigs afterwards from IFR in the morning to eventually MVFR 
by the afternoon. East-southeasterly winds of 17-23 knots will 
gust to 25-30 knots this evening but steadily slow across and 
turn to northwesterly from west to east overnight into Saturday 
afternoon as the low passes.

KMSP...Expecting additional showers and cigs to drop to IFR 
this evening. IFR conditions generally expected thru the
overnight but a brief period of MVFR cigs is possible from
07-10z Saturday. MSP should improve to MVFR by early Saturday
afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gust to over 30 knots this
evening, steadily slowing to near 10 knots and turning clockwise
to northerly by Saturday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind ENE 15-20G25-30 kts. 
MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts. 
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15G20-25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...CTG