FXUS63 KDLH 261926
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
226 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainy weekend begins through the day today. Recent trend shows the 
potential for a better break Saturday afternoon/evening before rain 
begins again through Sunday morning. 1 to 2 inches rainfall expected 
with locally higher amounts 2"+ possible especially along the North 
Shore

- Windy Sunday into Monday out of the east-northeast. Strongest 
winds in the Twin Ports, North Shore, and the MN Arrowhead. Wind 
Advisories may be needed. 

- Warmer temperatures into next week with additional chances for
  precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rain has begun to move into the Northland this afternoon, with 
the initial bands stretching up along the I-35 corridor and 
towards the International Border. Rain has been fairly light so 
far, and initial low level dry air has lead to some of these 
first bands spending much of their energy on just moistening the
column, instead of actually bringing very much rain to the 
surface. So far we've only seen a couple hundredths of an inch 
fall where rain has managed to make it down. Through this 
evening, we're expecting to see further rain shower development 
between the bands currently in the Northland and the 
thunderstorms in southern Minnesota. CAMs suggest this will be a
mix of stratiform and showery activity, and an injection of 
just a little CAPE advecting northward into the evening hours 
should mean that some embedded thunderstorms will be possible 
amongst all of this as well. Rainfall will be on and off, with 
periods of heavier rates mixed with times of light rain to 
drizzle, through tomorrow morning. 

Through the day tomorrow, the low pressure system lifts 
north, pulling precipitation with it. We have pulled chances of rain 
out slightly faster with this forecast update, which will make for a 
slightly longer break between periods of widespread rain. Tomorrow 
afternoon, areas south of Highway 2 may be nearly clear of all rain, 
while the chance for a shower or two lingers in the north, which 
should clear as well Saturday evening. This first round should bring 
0.25 - 1.25 inches of rain to the area, highest over the BLA to Iron 
Range and along the North Shore. 

Then our second wave of rain arrives through Sunday morning, which 
should have a much easier time of actually reaching the ground, with 
rain starting right away. This system, just a tad further southeast 
than the first, will bring another 0.5 -1.5 inches of rain (highest 
amounts over NW WI and the North Shore) and strong east to 
northeasterly winds to the region. These winds, strongest closer to 
Lake Superior could see gusts of 30 to 45 mph, and it is still 
possible a Wind Advisory may be needed for the Twin Ports and North 
Shore Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. However, recent 
trends have been bringing winds down slightly, so will hold off on 
any headline decisions for now. Rain should wind down through the 
day Monday. 

Into next week, some warmer temperatures return with highs in the 
50s and 60s (possibly some areas seeing 70). Our pattern remains 
active however, with multiple additional chances for rain through 
next week. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions for most terminals will continue to degrade through 
the afternoon and evening, coming down to MVFR and IFR visibilities 
and ceilings as rain becomes more widespread across the region. At 
BRD, where a band of rain already moved across, conditions may 
improve for a couple hours before degrading again. Some LIFR 
ceilings may be possible overnight into Saturday morning. Southwest 
winds remain strong through this evening before slowly weakening 
into Saturday morning. Saturday morning, conditions will begin to 
improve slowly, most likely at BRD and HYR by mid morning
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An active period is expected through the weekend across western Lake 
Superior. Southeast to northeasterly winds today remain strong into 
Saturday with some gusts of 25 knots overnight, and waves up to 6 
feet, especially near the head of the lake. Expect rain and some 
possible embedded thunderstorms along with these winds. There will 
be a slight lull late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours, as 
winds become light out of the north. At this point, waves will stop 
growing, but our current forecast of wave heights dropping to 2-3 
feet may be slightly underdone, as larger swell may linger. 
Northeasterly winds pick up again Sunday, this time stronger. Gusts 
of 35 to 45 knots are expected, especially along teh North Shore, 
across the Outer Apostle Islands, and into the Twin Ports. These 
high-end gales continues into Monday morning, slowly decreasing 
through the day Monday. Sunday night, when winds are strongest, 
waves of 10 to 15 feet are possible. A Gale Watch remains in effect. 
With these strongest winds, expect rain and some possible embedded 
thunderstorms. 

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for 
     LSZ121-140>143-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>145.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for 
     LSZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT 
     Saturday for LSZ146-147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens