FXUS63 KDLH 180841
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
341 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some light rain/snow showers today over mainly northern
  Minnesota. Stronger snow showers possible Friday with colder
  air.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over the weekend with lower
  humidity and gusty winds.

- An area of low pressure may impact the Northland next
  Monday/Tuesday with some wintry mix possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Today and tonight...

Colder air is moving into the Northland behind a cold front.
Clouds will be on the increase through the day. Parts of
northwest Wisconsin may get brushed by some light showers today
with more showers possible (20-50%) over central to northern
Minnesota. The northern Minnesota showers may be mixed with some
snow at times. Snow shower chances will continue tonight and
with colder air moving in, steep low level lapse rates will
exist. The high res model guidance suggest horizontal convective
rolls will occur and may lead to localized heavier snow showers
over far northern Minnesota through the evening. We don't
anticipate much for accumulation.

Friday and Friday night...

The core of the coldest air will be over or near the Northland
with 850MB temperatures from -6 to -10C. Cyclonic upper level
flow with a couple of stronger shortwaves embedded in the flow
will also move through. A better chance and greater coverage of
snow/rain showers will occur (20-60%) over the Northland,
highest over northern Minnesota. Steep low level lapse rates,
8-9C/KM, are forecast and there will be at least some weak 
CAPE. The RAP is much more bullish on the CAPE Friday which may 
be a bit overdone. Stronger showers, rain or snow, will be 
possible Friday and lead to reduced visibility. The stronger 
April sun and forecast surface highs from the upper thirties to 
mid-forties should limit snow accumulation but sudden visibility 
reductions are possible. The convective nature of the showers 
will also lead to snow occurring with higher surface 
temperatures. Gusty westerly winds are expected Friday with 
gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

Showers will end Friday night for most areas with some light
lake effect possible along portions of the South Shore.

Saturday through Sunday...

Dry conditions are expected through the weekend under partly to
mostly sunny skies with surface ridging just off to the west. 
Highs Saturday will be in the forties but warm into the fifties 
on Sunday. There will be elevated fire weather concerns through 
the weekend with lowering humidity and gusty westerly winds.

Early next week...

The deterministic global models show an area of low pressure
moving through the region but vary on its track. The ECMWF 
ensemble members also show plenty of spread with 06Z Tuesday 
surface centers from northern Minnesota into northern Iowa. The 
low is not very deep and QPF not very high but a wintry mix 
could result depending on the track. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Most the Northland was under VFR conditions but there are
pockets of fog with visibility 1 mile or less along with very
low ceilings. Patchy fog will continue in spots overnight mainly
affecting KHIB and possibly KINL. An upper trough will settle
over the region through the period with colder air moving in. We
expect low VFR or MVFR ceilings to develop from northwest to
southeast through the period. There also will be some showers
the develop, especially with some heating today. 

Gusty westerly winds will develop as mixing develops but will
diminish this evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An extended period of hazardous conditions, mainly for smaller
vessels, will occur today into at least Saturday night.

Southwest winds will increase today with gusts of 25 to 30
knots developing and waves will build to 3 to 5 feet. The wind
and waves will diminish for a time late this afternoon into
tonight but ramp up again Friday from the west. The strongest
wind will occur Friday with gusts of 25 to 35 knots. There is a
20 percent chance for some gale force gusts around 35 knots.

West or northwest winds will occur Saturday with gusts again
around 25 knots but then subside a bit into Sunday. We issued a
long duration Small Craft Advisory for most of the nearshore
waters starting today and ending Saturday evening or Sunday
morning. 

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT 
     Sunday for LSZ140>143-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT 
     Saturday for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde