FXUS63 KABR 030538 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1238 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather expected Friday through the weekend for north central 
SD. However, there is a 40-60% chance of rain over south central to 
northeastern SD and western MN mainly Friday afternoon through 
Friday night.

- A much larger system looks to affect the region on Monday, with 
widespread moderate rainfall. The threat for severe weather still 
appears low at this time (higher across NE/KS/OK), but we will 
continue to monitor trends.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Diabatic heating earlier this afternoon generated scattered
shower/thunderstorm coverage across the CWA that is winding down
now. Once these remaining showers dissipate, the forecast area
should be dry for the rest of tonight, under a partly to mostly
clear sky. Will leave the low temperatures ranging mainly from 
the mid 30s to the low 40s in place.

UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The 19Z surface map shows the exiting southern low over IA and a 
couple of merging lows over northwestern ND and north of Aberdeen to 
near Jamestown. The exiting lows will allow showers and weak 
thunderstorms to quickly end this evening. Before the drier air 
completely moves in, pop up showers in the daytime heating will 
continue. Mid level lapse rates of 7-8C/km are moving into central 
SD. Winds gusting 25-35mph have been common to our west, in this 
area of clearing. High mixing will allow for these winds to continue 
east. Fortunately, the better mixing diminishes when the stronger 
winds of around 60mph move across north central SD after 00Z. Still, 
stronger showers or a couple of thunderstorms will remain possible 
through the early evening hours, and could be capable of producing 
small hail. 

The dry weather will be short lived, as next area of low pressure 
shifting across the Central Plains will push a 40 to 60% chance of 
light rain across much of the area on Friday. Dry weather will 
remain over north central South Dakota. Chances for a wetting rain, 
rain of 0.10 inches or more, during the day Friday are less than 10 
percent for all but south central South Dakota. The strongest winds 
Friday will be closer to the exiting surface low, with gusts north 
of Highway 12 of 25 to 30 mph through much of the day. Friday night 
will feature exiting rain showers over our eastern to southeastern 
counties, with a clearing sky. Temperatures west of the James River 
will fall into the lower 30s by daybreak Saturday. The 25-75th 
percentiles for temperatures are between 31 and 35F for western 
Corson County (where temperatures are expected to be the lowest).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Saturday with a 
surface high pressure and broad upper level trough over the region. 
High temperatures may warm to within a few degrees of average. The 
surface high pressure shift eastward on Sunday with increasing 
southerly winds across the plain states. The southerly winds will 
also bring warmer temps in the area with highs reaching the 60s and 
70s for most locations. The NBM is showing wind gusts exceeding 30 
knots Sunday afternoon, mainly along and west of Highway 83. Higher 
gusts exceeding 45 knots will be possible in Corson and Dewey 
Counties. The NBM has a 70-85% chance of winds exceeding 45 knots in 
north central SD. However, half km winds off the GFS is lower, and 
so is the grand ensemble. Thus, will blend in lower wind gusts 
Sunday afternoon. 

An upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system 
will cross the region on Monday, bringing a 55-80 percent chance of 
showers. Low level moisture and increasing instability does move 
into the CWA ahead of the frontal boundary with the NBM showing a 20 
to 50 percent chance surface CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg. The 
probability of seeing 1K J/kg is non-existence over the CWA, and 
even for much of SD. Even with the limited instability, excellent 
deep layer and low level wind shear may produce some storms to 
monitor on Monday. 

Beyond Monday, the upper level trough remains near the northern 
plains with periods of showers in each forecast period next week. 
Temperatures next week will favor near average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The TAF valid period at all four terminals is forecast to be VFR 
through 18Z Friday. After 18Z Friday, MVFR cigs could form from 
southwest South Dakota to west central Minnesota under a rain band 
forecast to develop across the state. The rain band and potential 
low clouds are forecast to shift east out of the region later Friday 
evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise