FXUS63 KABR 092335 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
535 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patches of blowing snow over mainly north central portions of SD 
to diminish through the evening hours as winds decrease to 10 mph 
or less. 

- Temperatures fall to near normal Tuesday, with near record warmth 
returning Thursday with temps in the upper 40s to low 50s (15-25 
degrees above normal).
  
- Prairie Coteau downslope event possible with gusts over 25 mph out 
of the southwest Wednesday morning, with the potential for stronger 
winds Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Winds continue to diminish across the area this evening.
Temperatures are falling quickly under clear skies. At the moment,
no changes to the forecast are anticipated, but will continue to
monitor the temperature falls. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /This Evening through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 340 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Taking a look at the surface weather map at 20Z, the exiting low was 
set up over eastern Lake Superior and large high pressure over 
southern Alberta through MT and eastern WY. We'll remain under the 
influence of the 500mb trough, with northwesterly flow remaining 
through the short term period bringing a series of subtle waves this 
evening and again Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

As for the specifics, the Wind Advisory level winds (sustained winds 
over 30 mph/gusts over 45 mph) were more widespread this morning. 
Winds will continue to slowly diminish from west to east this 
afternoon. Webcams showed only 1-3 locations with snow drifting 
across the roadway, given the 1 inch of snow or less across the 
region and strong winds. 3 hour pressure rises of just over 3mb over 
south central to northeastern SD and west central MN at 18Z will 
reside over our far eastern tier of counties by 00Z. Expect a quick 
fall in winds at or around 00Z as the ridge of high pressure builds 
in from the west. Most locations will experience winds at or below 
10 mph on Sunday, shifting out of the south.

850mb temperatures will slowly moderate from around -6C this 
afternoon to range from -4 over west central MN to 0C over 
southwestern SD by daybreak Monday. High temperatures should end up 
1-3F higher Sunday, topping out in the 30s to near 40 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Issued at 340 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The long term portion of the forecast will feature above average 
temperatures with below normal precipitation. 

The period begins on Monday with a trough crossing the region, 
switching the winds to the northwest. 925 mb temps warm into the 
single digits on either side of zero C, which is above the 75th 
percentile. Favorable mixing winds should produce highs in the mid 
30s, to the mid 40s. A Canadian high pressure slides across the 
region behind the cold front, with chilly, but still above average 
temps on Tuesday. Highs in the mid 20, to the mid 30s are still near 
to five degrees above average. The surface high shifts southeast of 
the region allowing for southwesterly flow to develop. A downslope 
wind event may be possible Wednesday morning, and again Thursday 
morning. 925 mb temps steadily warm Wednesday through Thursday, 
perhaps peaking in the upper single digits above zero C. Depending 
on model used, low level temperatures differ by 5 degrees or so 
Wednesday and Thursday. While the 5 degrees may not seem like much, 
it could be the difference between near record highs on Thursday, to 
abnormally warm, but short of records. The current NBM forecast has 
highs in the mid 40s, to the lower 50s on Thursday, with 50 degrees 
in Aberdeen and 48 in Sisseton. The NBM 90th is four degrees warmer 
for both locations, and within a degree or two for record territory. 
An upper level trough may bring cooler temperature Friday and 
Saturday with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. Depending on model 
used, the trough may bring light pcpn to the CWA. The current NBM 
forecast is dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected at all sites except KATY. MVFR cigs
are expected to clear over the next couple of hours, but MVFR cigs
may build back in to KATY early in the morning. 

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise