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FXUS63 KABR 201946
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated smoke from Canadian wildfires will filter out the 
  sunshine through Wednesday.

- Fog is expected to develop late tonight and again late Sunday 
  night and linger into the mornings, especially east of the James
  Valley.  

- There will be daily precipitation chances (20 to 50 percent) 
  through Monday (mainly afternoon and evening activity).

- Confidence is increasing for hot temperatures returning by the end 
  of the week and next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Elevated smoke is being dragged into the northern Plains from 
Canadian wildfires by the deep upper trough and persistent upper 
level northerlies. It should stick around through Sunday night and 
even persist into mid week. 

Shortwave energy in the upper trough along with abundant low level 
moisture is helping to generate afternoon/evening showers and 
thunderstorms. Even with the smoke, temperatures have managed to 
climb well into the 80s today, easily hitting convective temps and 
the showers have popped accordingly. This pattern will persist and 
should have more shortwaves to work with on Sunday. No severe 
weather is expected due to really weak shear. 

High levels of llm will lead to fog development late tonight into 
Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Can't 
rule out vsby down around a mile or less along I-29 and the Coteau.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The first part of the long term is expected to be relatively quiet 
with northerly flow dominating the upper level pattern. Once we get 
to Wednesday, an area of high pressure moves north to south across 
western SD and a low pressure system slides southeast over MN and 
WI. This will keep our area in northerly flow. Thursday, a shortwave 
trough moves along the ridge to our west and pushes it into our area 
for the weekend and the end of the period. 

There is a chance (30% or less) for some showers and maybe an 
isolated storm or two Monday afternoon. After that, any PoPs more 
than about 25% stay out of our CWA. This could change for Wednesday 
if the low moves farther west than expected. However, over the past 
few runs, model tracks haven't changed much at all. 

Temperatures are now trending from right around average to about 10 
degrees above average by the end of the term. Highs are expected to 
be in the low 90s by Thursday. Lows by the end of the period are 
also expected to be around 10 degrees above average, only decreasing 
to the high 60s or low 70s overnight. Winds are expected to be 
around or less than 10 mph and gusts less than 15 mph Monday and 
Tuesday, then return to our normal speeds from Wednesday on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Sunday. 


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Wise