FXUS63 KABR 200531 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1231 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will slowly diminish this 
  evening. Flurries will exit from west to east this evening, as 
  well.

- The next chance of rain (20-50%) will be Monday/Monday night.

- Near to above average temperatures Sunday through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Updated discussion for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 909 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Radar still indicating there could be some flurries occurring, but
they are not widespread and should be ending in the next few
hours. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper trough and strong northwest flow have kept the flurries 
going today even as sfc temps have warmed into the upper 30s. Expect 
the flurries and/or sprinkles to taper off through the evening from 
west to east as winds also slowly diminish with weakening mixing and 
H7 jet support. 

High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and Saturday 
bringing drier air but still well-below normal temperatures. An 
elongated upper trough persists through Saturday keeping H85 temps 
in the negative single digits Celsius. Winds will remain out of the 
northwest on Saturday but should be significantly lighter given the 
lack of a sfc pressure gradient especially by afternoon. 

The one thing to watch will be just how low the temperatures fall 
tonight and Saturday night. The dry air near the sfc (dewpoints in 
the teens) plus any clearing of the clouds could see temps fall 
below forecast lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Sunday with a 
surface high pressure drifting south-southeast across the region 
with a surface low and upper level trough approaching the area from 
the west. The CWA will see increasing southerly winds, especially 
along and west of the Missouri River where there is a 50-70 percent 
chance sustained winds exceed 20 mph. The surface low pressure and 
upper level trough will progress across the region Monday into 
Tuesday, bringing a 20 to 50 percent chance of pcpn, mainly Monday 
afternoon over the eastern half of the CWA.

A stronger storm system may track across the region toward the end 
of the next work week and into the weekend. Depending on 
deterministic model used system may produce a prolonged period of 
showers, or mostly a passing shower with periods of dry conditions. 
The grand ensemble suggests Thursday night through Friday night will 
have the best potential of seeing pcpn, with the probability of 
seeing two hundredth of inch at 35 to 65 percent. Due to timing 
issues among models and ensembles, there is a significant spread for 
temperatures over the CWA Thursday through Saturday. Possible highs 
in the 60s and low 70s, or perhaps in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Scattered 
flurries (20%) also continue for the next several hours, mainly 
over KABR/KATY. Otherwise, northwest winds will range between 
10-25kts through the day and diminish this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...Wise 
LONG TERM...SD 
AVIATION...MMM