← Previous May 28, 2023 2:28 AM Next →

ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280728

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and
sporadic hail will be possible across parts of the central into the
northern Plains vicinity on Tuesday.

...Central to Northern Plains vicinity...

An upper ridge centered over the southern Rockies/High Plains
vicinity will result in modest northwesterly mid/upper flow from NE
southward into OK/TX on Tuesday. Several midlevel vorticity maxima
are forecast to migrate through this northwesterly flow across parts
of the central Plains. Upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints and
strong heating will support moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE) from eastern CO into KS, southward into the TX
Panhandle/northwest OK. Vertical shear will remain modest. However,
steep low-level lapse rates and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer
could support strong downdrafts capable of isolated strong/severe
gusts gusts. Some potential for forward propagating clusters is
possible toward evening as a low-level jet modestly increases and
some better organized structures may develop via storm
interactions/consolidating outflows.

Further north, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas
vicinity will weaken and lift northeast through the day. Vertical
shear will remain weak, but 60s F surface dewpoints amid strong
heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate
instability. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
strong gusts and hail (in any longer lived updrafts) will be
possible during the afternoon/early evening.

..Leitman.. 05/28/2023

$$