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FNUS73 KDMX 151120
FWSDMX
Spot Forecast for Union Hills...USFWS
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
620 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.
Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.
.DISCUSSION...
Clouds increase today with a few scattered showers by this
afternoon. Surface winds remain modest from the southeast for much
of the day. Relative humidity values drop into the 40s by this
afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Temperature.........58 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................68 percent at ignition...Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 9 mph at
ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 9 to 10
mph shifting to the south around 10 mph late in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5400 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /12400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /66100 knot-ft/.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth at ignition...max 4.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27 40 49 57 60 67 71 74 80
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............58 61 64 67 69 71 71 72 73
RH..............68 58 50 47 44 41 42 41 41
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S
20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 13 13 14 15 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.7 4.6 5.3 5.4 5.4
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE S S S S
Transp wind spd.12 10 10 12 13 13 14 14 14
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100012 17 23 32 41 52 64 65 66
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms
through the night. Rain showers likely
overnight.
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
southwest around 7 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the late evening
and overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west
around 9 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4400 knot-ft) late in the
night.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........63 76 88 85 78 72
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............71 67 61 60 58 57
RH..............47 61 81 84 93 93
20 ft wind......S 10 S 9 S 7 S 9 SW 8 SW 7
20 ft wind gust.15 13 9 13 12 9
Mix hgt (ft)....2400 600 800 500 1100 700
Transport wind..S 15 S 13 S 13 SW 13 SW 13 SW 10
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....4 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/100034 7 9 5 12 7
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the morning, then slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the morning and early
afternoon.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (42400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........72 55 43 28
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
Temp............56 60 67 71
RH..............96 89 65 49
20 FT wind......W 7G9 W 8G13 W 10G14 W 9G14
Mix hgt (ft)....1000 1700 3800 4900
Transport wind..W 9 W 9 W 12 W 9
GFDI............0 0 0 0
Haines index....3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/10008 13 37 41
$$
Forecaster...Cogil
Requested by...Ryan Harr
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414255.0/DMX
.DELDT 05/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL [email protected]