026 FNUS21 KWNS 221603 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... Modifications to the forecast were relatively minor. Removed elevated from the Santa Cruz Mountains based on based on observed position of the coastal trough. Conditions there may briefly approach elevated levels, however. Elsewhere, elevated lines were adjusted based on recent ensemble guidance. The critical areas remain unchanged. The surface pressure gradient should peak in northern California early this afternoon before beginning a gradual weakening trend. As the cold front progresses south in the central/southern Plains, any ongoing fires will be subject to winds shifting to the north/northeast at 15-25 mph, though RH will also recover quickly. ..Wendt.. 10/22/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will intensify over the central Plains today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Rockies. Gusty surface winds are expected across the southern Plains ahead of a lee low, while offshore winds are forecast across northern California. ...Northern California... High pressure settling over the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest will drive north-northeasterly low-level flow across much of the Sacramento Valley. Offshore flow near the northern Coastal Ranges will be dry with relative humidities in the 10 to 15% range. With warm temperatures and wind gusts above 35 mph, critical fire weather conditions are likely. ...Southern High Plains... A lee low will strengthen across New Mexico and west Texas through the afternoon hours. On the west side of a dryline, gusty southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and low humidity of 10 to 15% will likely support critical fire weather conditions. A cold front moving south out of Colorado will end the fire weather concerns in the evening as cooler and more moist air sweeps in from the north. To the north across southern Colorado, elevated and locally critical fire weather conditions appear likely ahead of the cold front. Downslope winds off the Rockies will support fire weather conditions through the first half of the afternoon. The primary limiting factor will be the rapidly advancing front bringing increased humidity later in the day. Winds will gradually decrease behind the front, ending organized fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$
