026 
FNUS21 KWNS 221603
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...

Modifications to the forecast were relatively minor. Removed
elevated from the Santa Cruz Mountains based on based on observed
position of the coastal trough. Conditions there may briefly
approach elevated levels, however. Elsewhere, elevated lines were
adjusted based on recent ensemble guidance. The critical areas
remain unchanged. The surface pressure gradient should peak in
northern California early this afternoon before beginning a gradual
weakening trend. As the cold front progresses south in the
central/southern Plains, any ongoing fires will be subject to winds
shifting to the north/northeast at 15-25 mph, though RH will also
recover quickly.

..Wendt.. 10/22/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will intensify over the central Plains
today as a cold front moves southeast out of the Rockies. Gusty
surface winds are expected across the southern Plains ahead of a lee
low, while offshore winds are forecast across northern California.

...Northern California...
High pressure settling over the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest
will drive north-northeasterly low-level flow across much of the
Sacramento Valley. Offshore flow near the northern Coastal Ranges
will be dry with relative humidities in the 10 to 15% range. With
warm temperatures and wind gusts above 35 mph, critical fire weather
conditions are likely.

...Southern High Plains...
A lee low will strengthen across New Mexico and west Texas through
the afternoon hours. On the west side of a dryline, gusty southwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph and low humidity of 10 to 15% will likely
support critical fire weather conditions. A cold front moving south
out of Colorado will end the fire weather concerns in the evening as
cooler and more moist air sweeps in from the north.

To the north across southern Colorado, elevated and locally critical
fire weather conditions appear likely ahead of the cold front.
Downslope winds off the Rockies will support fire weather conditions
through the first half of the afternoon. The primary limiting factor
will be the rapidly advancing front bringing increased humidity
later in the day. Winds will gradually decrease behind the front,
ending organized fire weather concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$