FNUS21 KWNS 111553
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN...

No changes needed to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 09/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to
continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern
Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West
will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface
low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front
moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the
Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South.
Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of
the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern
today and tonight.

...Great Basin and Northwest...
Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will
overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low
over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over
much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical
fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin.
Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching
cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible,
along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions.
Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler
and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into
early D2/Thursday.

Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and
deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered
thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier
fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite
higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall
lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting
rainfall.

...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains...
With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and
stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains
today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly
deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the
central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds
will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to
near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the
High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may
also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and
Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a
pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid
only modest humidity recovery.

...Mid South...
As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore
winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South.
Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass
approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with
areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and
northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$