← Previous February 27, 2024 10:32 AM

FNUS21 KWNS 271633

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Valid 271700Z - 281200Z


Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas
based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire
activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds
through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds
will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 02/27/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/

Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough
merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the
central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains
and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread
elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted.

...Southern Plains...
As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level
flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25
mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western
and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the
unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud
cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still,
widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions
appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant
fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more
receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence
exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central
OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are
expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity.

To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface
trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest
winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While
RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm
temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions.

Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as
a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind
the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly.
Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly
limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...