May 14, 2024 5:01 PM Next →
FNUS28 KWNS 142203 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$