FXUS63 KFGF 300249
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple systems will bring periods of rain to the region
  Tuesday afternoon and again later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Some patchy fog has developed in the Devils Lake Basin. The
spotty drizzle is still occurring in some areas. By 06z/midnight 
these areas should start to dry up and will be monitoring fog 
development through the night. Tomorrow around 18z\1 pm we 
should start to see the light rain showers return.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

As the upper low slowly departs our region we are still seeing
some spotty drizzle that may continue for the next hour. Tonight
is still looking to be fairly cloudy however there is a small
signal for some early morning patchy fog but not that confident
in timing and development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Upper low spinning over central MN continues to lift
northeastward this afternoon, and should be in Ontario by
tonight. This should allow some brief ridging to move in between
systems. Weak surface ridging over the CWA will slowly give way
so southeasterly winds at least on the ND side. Could see a bit
of patchy fog/mist development even if clouds linger given
recent visibility trends, although probabilities of less than a
half a mile are under 10 percent. 

The quiet conditions will be short lived as another upper low
moves into the northern Rockies tomorrow and ejects a strong
lead shortwave into the eastern Plains. Southeasterly winds
ahead of the surface trough should bring at least some
marginally warmer temperatures tomorrow afternoon, and some of
the ensemble members bring some CAPE up to 500 J/kg into our 
west central MN counties, but most are lower. There is the
threat of some lightning impacts but all the updraft helicity
tracks are well to our south and think our chances of seeing
any stronger convection are less than 10 percent. The rain will
lift northeastward into Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with another quick break in precip rounds expected for mid-week.

Thursday into Friday, the upper trough over the Rockies starts
to kick out into the Plains and then lift off into Canada. There
is still quite a bit of variation in the exact track of how the
ensemble members handle the low. Probabilities of at least a
quarter of an inch of rain are 30 to 40 percent across most of
the CWA, so it seems like there will be a good chance for
another wetting rain. For the weekend and into Monday, there
continues to be a signal for a fairly active pattern, but timing
is all over the place. One cluster is showing a trough at the
same time as another cluster a ridge over the Plains. Thus, will
keep the 20-30 POPs and near average temps the mean gives us.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Conditions are expected to be predominantly MVFR through the
night but there will be occasion when the clouds rise to VFR
however they are still expected to drop shortly after. Tomorrow
morning their may also be some fog development as the winds
start to drop less than 10kts. However not confident in timing
or location so will be amending the TAFS upon development. By 
the afternoon the showers are expected to make an appearance. 
KDVL and KFAR will get the showers first then they will move 
northeast to the other TAF sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...MM