FXUS63 KFGF 081721
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1221 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Friday in northwest and north
  central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Fog cleared shortly after the previous update with a shallow CU
field beginning to pop up now increasing confidence in the
placement on any afternoon showers. Activity looks most likely
to occur along and south of HWY 2 this afternoon as the low mid
level front moves southwest. Temps are slightly over preforming
thus far and have accordingly bumped maxT up a couple degrees to
the low 70s for the valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 939 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Fog is mostly lifted this morning with just some reduced vis
remaining in areas downstream of the Turtle Mountains. Aside 
from this patchy fog mostly clear skies currently south of HWY 
2 with scattered showers still possible as the upper deformation
moves south with some more shower potential along the SD border
to the north of the upper low.

UPDATE
Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

500 mb upper low moving south now and into western SD. Satellite
shows main clouds with it clearing from the east with clearing
into Carrington and near Devils Lake. In its place is an area of
high/mid clouds from northern MN moving west and extending into
far NE ND and southern Manitoba. Within these clouds are 
pockets of IFR cigs and some fog which is present around Park 
Rapids. Patchy fog found in a few other spots now that we have 
passed sunrise. Clear sky SE ND into WC MN. So tweeked sky 
cover a bit but NBM/conshort blend covered things pretty well. 
Idea of a few showers this aftn/eve still look reasonable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

500 mb low has moved back west and was moving into SE Montana at
07z. This upper low will then drop south-southeast thru western,
south central SD thru today as 500 mb heights rise thru the
Canadian prairies. What this means is that overall chances for
precipitation today is quite low. Sfc heating with enough cold
air aloft will given a few hundred j/kg CAPE in South Dakota
into southern MN with some potential instability skirting our
far south. Overall short term models indicate mid aftn to early
evening spotty showers a possibility southern 2/3 of the fcst
area. Will maintain slight chance wording generally along and
south of Hwy 2 19z-00z and far south thru 03z. 

Cloud cover a mix of some patchy low clouds around Bemidji and
Park Rapids (with some fog as well), with potential for some low
clouds to expand west into the central RRV. Otherwise stratocu
and mid clouds with clear breaks. This variable sky cover will
continue today then as upper low sinks farther south tonight and
drier air moves in gradually from the north overnight into
Thursday will see more widespread clearing. 

Highs today and Thursday mid 60s to low 70s.

500 mb ridge building into NW Canada will kick an upper level
wave southward into Manitoba and NW Ontario Thursday night and
this wave will move southeast thru Minnesota on Friday. With it
scattered showers, higher chances north central MN (BDE-BJI-
PKD) with low pops back into the Red River valley. A few
afternoon t-storms are possible east of the Red River in
Minnesota where 500 mb short wave tracks though as MUCAPES reach
300-600 j/kg, Focus is more NE into east central MN. 

That moves out and this weekend overall is pretty quiet and
mild. Highs in the 70s. Fast WNW flow aloft will bring potential
for a couple weak short waves and with 70s in the aftn some late
day or evening showers are possible, with slight chc pops noted
near Canadian border and NW MN. GEFS and ECMWF ensembles
indicate no clear signal for any significant precipitation this
weekend from these waves.

Into next week...indications are that a stronger 500 mb wave
will move east or southeast into the plains by mid next week
increasing shower or t-storm chances. A decent signal for this
shows up on GFS ensembles with increased chances for
precipitation. NBM 4.1 probs for rainfall amounts indicate low
probs (20-30 pct) for more than 0.50 inch rainfall 12z Tue-12z 
Thu). ECMWF extreme forecast index show nothing significant thru
thru Wed next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Largely VFR this afternoon with a less than 20 percent chance
for some showers to form from DVL to BJI from 4pm to 10pm. CU
could occasionally become broken creating a ceiling below 6000
but but showers would be the only hindrance to aviation this
afternoon. The light northeast winds turn more due northerly
overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...TT