Iowa Weather Blog Presented by ILEC at Overlook Farm

WARM DAYS: A few warm days to end the month of January with readings into the 40s across the northern counties, with 50s to around 60 across the south. This warm spell will last into Tuesday but no further as a frontal system with little moisture moves in at that time. Some light rain showers or even a few sprinkles will be possible. Amounts are likely to be under a few hundredths with many places getting a trace or nothing at all.

SLIGHTLY SEASONAL: Readings will drop back to the 30s to lower 40s across the state, which is closer to seasonal averages, but still are 5-10° above them. It will remain dry most of the week with a disturbance that may graze the southern counties with some precipitation late in the week.

COOLING OFF: This model run shows temperatures are likely to return to more seasonal readings further into February but won’t be going below that. This run shows NO arctic outbreaks as is expected given the positive NAO. It’s also looking rather dry with little chance of precip through the Valentine’s Day holiday (which ends the run). However wild swings have been seen past 10 days with regards to precip and we’ll likely see that on further runs for sometime to come.

MOS Projected Highs for Monday

The warmth that started the new year will be returning to finish its first month. A warm front will move to our north during the overnight hours which will bring temperatures shooting back up into the 40s and 50s across the state. Some places across far southwestern Iowa where no snow is on the ground may touch 60°. This will continue into Tuesday before a cold front drops temperatures closer to average, but still remaining warm for the first days of February.

WARMING AHEAD: It will be a cool but seasonal day across the state with readings in the 20s and 30s for highs. It will warm up Monday and Tuesday with temperatures climbing back into the upper 30s and 40s across the state. This will lead to some melting of the snow where there is still some on the ground. Tuesday, a disturbance moves through with some light rain possible. Temperatures will be warm enough for the precipitation to be in the form of rain. It will bring temperatures back down into the upper 20s and 30s for the rest of the week for highs.

MORE WARMTH: The seasonal readings will be replaced by next weekend however as a ridge that will be developing over the western half of the country moves eastward. This likely will bring temperatures back into the 40s statewide for highs and will melt some more of the snow on the ground.

ARCTIC WEATHER AHEAD?: The GFS has been hinting at an Arctic outbreak in February for sometime and some of the previous model runs have shown it. This one is no exception with a 1052mb high coming down from Nunavut Province in Canada the second week in February. It will moderated by the time it gets to the United States, but it will also bring some moisture in from the west so some snow may break out along the leading edge of the colder weather. We’ll see if this continues on later runs, but as mentioned yesterday, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is looking to remain positive through mid month lessening the chances for these outbreaks of colder weather (although not totally eliminating them however)

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QUIET: Still remains quiet across the state. Some light freezing rain and snow moved across the northwestern corner of the state last night with some issues there. The rest of the state remained dry and will remain so through at least Friday. Temperatures will slowly rise into the 30s and 40s across the state ahead of the cold front that moves in Friday with some light snow. Amounts with this system will be light with a dusting of snow possible.

BENIGN WEATHER: This model run is the driest in quite a while. No signs of a storm around Groundhog Day, no signs of an arctic blast. In fact, a warm up is in store for February with the flow coming out of the Pacific. This will, if it’s right lead to warmer temperatures once again and some snowmelt. The changes however have been rather wild past seven days so don’t bring your hopes for a warm February quite yet.

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