294 FXUS63 KDMX 120538 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1138 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds remain breezy into Thursday, with gusts up to 15-25 mph Thursday morning, and isolated to 30 mph at times. - Cloud cover increases into Thursday, with isolated sprinkles throughout the day. Dry conditions otherwise remain through the rest of the work week. - The cooling trend continues through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. Highs fall into the 40s starting Thursday, with overnight lows 30s tonight and in the 20s by Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft will turn northerly early Thursday morning and persist into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front will move across the state overnight dropping temperatures north to south with lows in the mid 30s. Breezy conditions will linger through tomorrow afternoon with a period of increased winds in the morning. During this time, gusts will pick up to 20-25 mph with isolated instances of 30 mph. By Thursday morning, a weak mid-level shortwave will move across the area providing enough forcing for potential sprinkles and light showers. Confidence on the exact location for sprinkles remains low due to the isolated nature. However, most high-res guidance is showing spotty sprinkles/light showers. The REFS does show a low potential (<15%) for some flurries to mix in for northern Iowa; however, the area where precipitation can form sits largely below the ice introduction layer so it is unlikely for this to become the case. Drier conditions return Thursday evening with winds expected to diminish. Due to the cold air advection associated with the frontal passage, temperatures will remain 15 degrees cooler than Wednesday with highs ranging from the low 40s in the north with mid to upper 40s in the south. Thursday night into Friday, temperatures continue to drop into the low 20s north to upper 20s south with this being the first instance of below 30F temperatures for much of the southern half of the state. On Friday morning, another weak shortwave is expected to traverse over the area; however, a drier atmospheric column should limit the potential for any precipitation. Cooler temperatures will continue Friday as high pressure starts to descend over the Upper Midwest with highs a few degrees cooler than Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Dry and cool conditions will persist throughout the weekend as the large area of surface high pressure slowly descends southeastward across the Central Plains. Overnight lows Saturday will be even cooler given clear skies and light winds, which will lead to very efficient radiational cooling, with values in the upper teens northwest and in the low 20s across the remainder of the forecast area. Warming through the day will not be very significant, with highs generally in the low to mid 40s. While still cool, slight warming will occur into Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 40s as the low level flow pattern shifts more southwesterly. PoP mentions over southwest Iowa in previous forecasts have been removed for Sunday/Monday as the shortwave of concern is much further south in recent model runs given the influence of the stronger ridging further north. The gradual warming trend continues through the early parts of the next work week as ridging aloft moves over the Central US, bringing with it warmer air. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 VFR to MVFR conditions are expected at all sites this period. Winds will remain breezy and from the north with wind gusts picking up early Thursday morning. Guidance has backed off on the expanse of the stratus deck mentioned during the 00z issuance. From a combination of this and current satellite observations showing clearing in Minnesota, MVFR mentions have been removed from most sites. KFOD and KMCW are still likely to experience MVFR ceilings through the morning which should recover by the afternoon. Elsewhere, lower but still VFR ceilings are expected. Light sprinkles are possible across the state at times through the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee/Wyss LONG TERM...Bury AVIATION...67
