647 FXUS63 KDMX 120446 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1046 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds remain breezy into this evening, and throughout Thursday, with gusts up to 15-25 mph, and isolated to 30 mph at times. - Cloud cover increases into Thursday, with a low potential (10%) for sprinkles in the morning. Dry conditions otherwise remain through the rest of the work week. - The cooling trend continues through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. Highs fall into the 40s starting Thursday, with overnight lows 30s tonight and in the 20s by Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 248 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Dry conditions have returned across Iowa this afternoon, after showers and thunderstorms descended through portions of northern and eastern Iowa this morning. The low pressure system responsible for this activity is currently centered over eastern Illinois as mesoanalysis indicates. The main weather impacts from this system lately though has been a gradual increase in surface winds spreading west to east across the state weak cold air advection arrives, along with an increasing surface pressure gradient. The net result has been breezy conditions, especially over western Iowa where gusts between 25-30 mph have occurred lately, which coincides with the 850mb wind maximum aloft mixing to the surface. The expectation is for winds to decrease slightly through the rest of the afternoon as the elevated wind maximum departs southeastward and mixing becomes less efficient, but stronger cold air advection arriving this evening will keep conditions on the breezy side into the night and even more so throughout Thursday. Gusts up to 20-25 mph will be more common, with isolated 30 mph gusts possible at times. Besides the winds, patchy mid-level cloud cover is descending from Minnesota through much of central Iowa, leading to areas of cloud cover while much of western Iowa remains mostly sunny. Cloud cover is expected to become more common through Thursday, largely due to the lingering moisture in the low levels that looks to hang around through at least Friday, as the large upper-level trough strengthens as the shortwave overhead Iowa currently becomes ingested in this larger feature, moving very little eastward across the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. Further west, an upper level ridge will continue to build, which will eventually arrive into the weekend. As a result of these larger scale synoptic features, much of the Midwest will remain in rather strong upper-level northwesterly flow into Friday. Therefore, expecting stubborn cloud cover to generally stick around into the end of the work week, though some breaks could occur at times. While dry conditions are expected to remain for the rest of today, guidance indicates a mid-level shortwave within the larger trough tracking south/southeast across Wisconsin and Illinois Thursday morning, providing weak forcing that would indicate some potential for sprinkles at times Thursday morning. Overall confidence on exact timing and coverage is low, but model members are suggesting trace accumulations over much of the area, so have added low PoP mentions to account for the possibility. Considered the potential for this precipitation to fall as flurries given surface temperatures near freezing over northern and central Iowa, though dry air in the DGZ greatly limits this potential. Dry conditions otherwise are expected throughout much if not the entire day, with cooler highs in the 40s across the forecast area. One more shortwave is indicated to descend within the larger system through early Friday, which models indicate could lead to another low PoP scenario, but with more drier air present, potential is even lower and have therefore left the forecast dry at this time. Overnight lows are expected to be quite chilly as temperatures below freezing will be present across central Iowa as values fall into the 20s. Northwest flow will persist, with light surface winds as high pressure makes a slow descent over the Upper Midwest. Highs will be on the cold side, with values in the upper 30s north and in the low to mid 40s south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Dry and cool conditions will persist throughout the weekend as the large area of surface high pressure slowly descends southeastward across the Central Plains. Overnight lows Saturday will be even cooler given clear skies and light winds, which will lead to very efficient radiational cooling, with values in the upper teens northwest and in the low 20s across the remainder of the forecast area. Warming through the day will not be very significant, with highs generally in the low to mid 40s. While still cool, slight warming will occur into Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 40s as the low level flow pattern shifts more southwesterly. PoP mentions over southwest Iowa in previous forecasts have been removed for Sunday/Monday as the shortwave of concern is much further south in recent model runs given the influence of the stronger ridging further north. The gradual warming trend continues through the early parts of the next work week as ridging aloft moves over the Central US, bringing with it warmer air. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 VFR to MVFR conditions are expected at all sites this period. Winds will remain breezy and from the north with wind gusts picking up early Thursday morning. Guidance has backed off on the expanse of the stratus deck mentioned during the 00z issuance. From a combination of this and current satellite observations showing clearing in Minnesota, MVFR mentions have been removed from most sites. KFOD and KMCW are still likely to experience MVFR ceilings through the morning which should recover by the afternoon. Elsewhere, lower but still VFR ceilings are expected. Light sprinkles are possible across the state at times through the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...Bury AVIATION...67
