473 FXUS63 KDMX 111742 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1142 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Few rain showers and thunderstorms in portions of northeast to eastern Iowa this morning. - Blustery northwest winds are expected today with winds sustained around 15-20 mph and gusts to around 35 mph, the highest winds and gusts in the southwest half of the state today. Winds remain breezy through Thursday as well. - A cooling trend begins today with a chilly end to the week expected. Highs fall into the 40s starting Thursday with overnight lows in the 20s to 30s tonight and in the 20s by Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 241 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 The surface high pressure has moved off to the east of the state early this morning with the upper trough quickly swinging through the state here through the overnight and morning hours today and arriving in the Great Lakes Region by midday. The associated surface low is tracking further south than guidance suggested at this time yesterday and has slightly increased the possibility for some rain showers/sprinkles here overnight into early Wednesday morning in northern/northeast and then eastern Iowa. Radar returns have started to increase over northern Iowa though forecast soundings suggest ample dry air remains in the low levels. With the more southerly track of the low, there has been a fairly substantial increase in mid- level moisture than seen at this time yesterday. Initially this moisture is largely above 700mb but will lower through the overnight and will try to erode the lower level dry air to bring the showers to the surface. Upstream observations have already noted a decrease in dew point depressions in northwest Iowa closer to the low increasing confidence somewhat that certainly some sprinkles, but even some showers with time will occur into this morning in our area. Not expecting these showers to amount to much though some thunder could occur with some available instability in east central Iowa. As the low wraps around as it moves eastward, some additional showers or sprinkles may be possible following the initial push which ends later this morning in the east (prior to midday). These will again be fighting dry air which increases again in the mid- levels by afternoon and will be very spotty in coverage anyway. Have kept PoPs focused to this morning but will continue to monitor should any low PoPs be needed this afternoon. The more notable impacts today will be from the gusty winds and falling temperatures. The pressure gradient continues to tighten through the morning with winds turning to be out of the northwest on the backside of the low/cold front with increasing cold air advection today into tonight. This will result in the start of our cooling trend which will continue through the end of the week. Highs today fall back towards the upper 40s through the 50s but will feel even colder with the gusty northwest winds sustained around 15-20 mph and gusts to around 35 mph, the strongest winds and gusts in the southwest half of the state. Winds drop off some later this afternoon but remain elevated through the night and into Thursday with the sustained cold air advection and subsidence keeping gusts of at least 15-30 mph around through much of the day Thursday. Lows tonight will be chilly and in the upper 20s to 30s but are held up by expected cloud cover. This cloud cover could have some breaks in it though which may allow for some locations to dip even further. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 The cooler airmass fully settles in by Thursday as a Canadian surface high, centered near Winnipeg, advects a cold and dry arctic airmass into the Upper Midwest. This continued cold air advection will limit Thursday's high temperatures into the mid-40s, a chilly trend that will hold through the end of the workweek. With the Canadian high firmly in control, skies will remain largely clear Thursday night into Friday morning. The combination of clear skies, light winds and a very dry boundary layer will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling, allowing for overnight lows Thursday and Friday nights to plummet into the lower to mid 20s. Dry and quiet conditions persist through Saturday. Our next potential window for precipitation arrives Sunday morning as a mid-level low tracks across the Southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of this system could spark a few showers across the Plains; however, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the system's northward extent. Depending on the exact track, some light showers could skirt southwest Iowa. That being said, persistent dry air in the low levels may prove difficult to overcome, likely limiting measurable precipitation this far north. Given the uncertainty, low-end 15-20% PoPs have been introduced for southwest Iowa, and trends will be closely monitored for future adjustments. Subsidence and dry conditions are expected to return by the start of next week, accompanied by a slight moderation in the airmass as highs rebound back to the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 VFR conditions remain this afternoon, and will continue through much of the forecast period. Will see cloud cover increase though, and be rather patchy in nature as mid-level clouds pass through from north to south through this evening. Lower clouds arrive overnight and especially after sunrise, leading to periods of MVFR ceilings after 09-12z. Otherwise, breezy NW winds will decrease somewhat through the afternoon, but will remain slightly breezy overnight around 10-15 knots before turning more gusty again after sunrise Thursday. Cannot rule out a few sprinkles at times Thursday morning, but potential is very low (10%) and have left out of the current issuance. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...TDR AVIATION...Bury
