339 FXUS63 KDMX 110543 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild Tuesday with highs climbing into the 60s with mostly sunny skies. - Blustery Winds arrive Wednesday with winds out of the northwest reaching up to 20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. - A chilly end to the week with highs falling into the 40s Thursday and Friday and lows falling into the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Current surface analysis places a 1022 mb high over Iowa, which continues to keep conditions dry and calm. With the high directly overhead, winds will remain light compared to the past few days. As we progress through Tuesday, an H500 upper-level shortwave currently over the northern Rockies will swing across the High Plains, shunting our surface high to the east. This upper level disturbance will induce surface cyclogenesis as it pushes eastward, prompting cloud cover and light precipitation to develop across the northern Plains. Out ahead of this developing low, high level cirrus has already begun to filter into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Despite the increasing high clouds we have opted to keep highs in the 60s today, given the recent trend of temperatures overperforming and the onset of weak warm air advection. Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning As the high departs to the east and the surface low tracks across western Minnesota tonight, the local pressure gradient will begin to tighten. As the low pushes through northeast Iowa by Wednesday morning, winds will sharply shift out of the northwest, setting the stage for a cooler midweek airmass. Concurrently, while forecast soundings highlight an increase in mid-to-low level moisture, confidence in widespread measurable precipitation across eastern Iowa remains low due to substantial dry air in the near-surface layer. However, with enough moisture present between 700-800mb, a few raindrops or sprinkles could still overcome the dry layer and reach the surface. As a result, 10-20% PoPs have been maintained across eastern Iowa. Wednesday Afternoon In the wake of the departing low, strong cold air advection will overspread central Iowa, driven by the tightening pressure gradient. Northwest winds will increase to sustained speeds of around 20 mph, with gusts approaching 35 mph as low-level lapse rates steepen. This cold air advection will limit diurnal heating, resulting in noticeably cooler high temperatures compared to previous days. With the robust CAA and persistent, gusty northwest flow, temperatures Wednesday night are expected to plummet into the upper 20s to lower 30s. This sets the stage for a stretch of chilly November weather as we head into the back half of the week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 The cooler airmass fully settles in by Thursday as a Canadian surface high, centered near Winnipeg, advects a cold and dry arctic airmass into the Upper Midwest. This continued cold air advection will limit Thursday's high temperatures into the mid-40s, a chilly trend that will hold through the end of the workweek. With the Canadian high firmly in control, skies will remain largely clear Thursday night into Friday morning. The combination of clear skies, light winds and a very dry boundary layer will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling, allowing for overnight lows Thursday and Friday to plummet into the lower to mid 20s. Dry and quiet conditions persist through Saturday. Our next potential window for precipitation arrives Sunday morning as a mid-level low tracks across the Southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of this system could spark a few showers across the Plains; however, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the system's northward extent. Depending on the exact track, some light showers could skirt southwest Iowa. That being said, persistent dry air in the low levels may prove difficult to overcome, likely limiting measurable precipitation this far north. Given the uncertainty, low-end 15-20% PoPs have been introduced for southwest Iowa, and trends will be closely monitored for future adjustments. Subsidence and dry conditions are expected to return by the start of next week, accompanied by a slight moderation in the airmass as highs rebound back to the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 OVC skies have arrived sooner this evening and a few showers have been reported upstream. Have reflected this in the short term, adding PROB30 mentions for showers at KMCW and KALO. Confidence low in VSBY restrictions. Have trended more aggressive with clouds through the planning period, especially for terminals on the northeast side. Confidence increasing in stratus hanging around KMCW and KALO for the duration of the planning period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDR LONG TERM...TDR AVIATION...Jimenez
