471 FXUS63 KDMX 101748 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1148 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions continue today with highs in the 60s. - Gusty winds are expected on Wednesday with a low potential for light rain/sprinkles early mainly far east/northeast (15-20%). - A cooling trend begins Wednesday. Highs in the 40s with subfreezing morning lows in the 20s from Thursday through Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 241 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 The weak cold front had cleared all but far southeast Iowa by 6Z with winds out of the northwest in its wake. Since then, high pressure has begun nudging into Iowa and will pass through the state during the daytime today. Winds have gone calm in western Iowa but remain a bit more elevated in the rest of the state. With only a few high clouds over mainly eastern areas of the state early this morning, patchy fog development is certainly plausible in especially western Iowa and near favored areas like river valleys with the high pressure, calm winds and clear skies. Guidance remains not particularly excited about fog development overall and while not necessarily expecting widespread patchy fog, some sites could certainly experience some brief visibility reductions. Temperatures have already started to drop off quickly in the west and north where values have fallen into the upper 30s so with little in the way of cloud cover generally expecting cooler low temperatures to prevail most locations so have lowered lows for this morning, but may still need to drop another few to several degrees based on current observations. Daytime temperatures and mixing have over-performed the last several days leading to warmer high temperatures and breezier winds. With the high pressure overhead, today will continue to be dry with but with lighter winds. High clouds do start to increase by mid to late morning but look to hold off in especially southern and eastern Iowa until after the bulk of peak heating has occurred. Warm air advection does begin to increase again from midday into tonight west to east. With all these things together being taken into account (persistence, return of WAA, cloud cover) still went with raised high temperatures over NBM with the biggest changes in the east and south but still kept things warmer through the area with cloud cover not as likely to be persistent enough early enough to fully keep temperatures down. All this being said, temperatures are the main forecast challenge today, and with with highs largely in the 60s. Behind the departing high pressure, an upper trough and surface low will move through the region from later tonight through Wednesday. The bulk of guidance keeps any precipitation limited to our far north and east outside of the Euro which is a bit more excited about our moisture return. Soundings from the HRRR/RAP/GFS/RRFS all agree with the more limited moisture making anything much more than a few sprinkles pretty difficult to come by unless more moisture is realized. Have kept some low PoPs in the far east early Wednesday (15-20%). The more notable impacts Wednesday will be the gusty winds and increasing cold air advection leading to the start of a cooling trend through the end of the week. Temperatures will be in the 50s with winds out of the northwest gusting to at least 20 to 30 knots (25-35 mph), the higher gusts in the southwest, but could be higher with top of the mixed layer winds up to 30-35 knots (gusts up to 40 mph) in some locations. Did increase winds over NBM but may still need to raise further with clouds looking to clear out through at least the southwest half of the state by early Wednesday morning. Winds will decrease Wednesday evening (before returning into Thursday) but temperatures will be notably colder with lows into Thursday morning only in the upper 20s to 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 The large scale pattern towards the end of the work week features a building upper-level ridge over the northwestern CONUS, while the trough departing Iowa enters the Ohio Valley region and becomes one with a larger and rather potent trough sweeping across the upper Great Lakes region. The net result will be upper level northwest flow becoming dominant over Iowa, leading to a general cooler and quiet pattern. Highs will range only in the 40s, with overnight lows in the 20s to 30s through Friday. A few models suggests a low potential for light rain showers into eastern Iowa as wrap around precipitation may extend its influence westwards into Iowa as the low pressure deepens over the Ohio Valley region Thursday, though this would be battling a strong push of dry air as surface high pressure descends from Canada into the Midwest. Just worth a casual mention at this time, but something to keep an eye on for possible inclusion if the drier air is slower to arrive. While the aforementioned upper ridge nears the central US into the weekend, northwest flow with its dry and cooler air will generally hold. Highs over the weekend as a result will remain more towards seasonal norms in the 40s to 50s, with lows in the 20s to 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 VFR conditions to prevail through the end of this TAF period. Skies are mostly clear across central Iowa late this morning and into the afternoon hours; however, high clouds are starting to move across northwest Iowa and will reach terminal sites over the next couple of hours. Winds will generally be light but will increase out of the northwest as we head into Wednesday. Wind gusts could top out around 30 knots at a few terminals toward the end of the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...Bury AVIATION...TDR
