081 FXUS63 KDMX 081715 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and dry conditions will make today and tomorrow great days to be outdoors. - Above-average temperatures to start the week before a cooling trend mid-week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 Benign weather is in place across the state this AM, with a scattering of cirrus overhead. Fog concerns are low this morning due to ongoing cloud cover and winds staying sustained around 5 knots providing just enough mixing. Patchy low lying fog will still be possible in river valleys prior to sunrise. The extra breeze this morning is coming courtesy of the low swinging through the Great Lakes today. A surface trough and windshift are currently moving across northwest Iowa and should clear the southeast part of the state shortly after 12z. While technically a cold front, a ridge will build in from the west through the day today and continue the warming trend. Cloud cover will be minimal in the wake of the frontal passage and diurnal heating should be mostly uninhibited today. 10-12C temps in the 900-950mb layer will attempt to mix down under those clear skies and warm further at the surface into the upper 50s and low 60s. Surface winds may be calm through the middle part of Sunday night as the surface high axis moves overhead. Assuming skies remain clear, decent radiation fog conditions may be in place for a few hours before winds increase near sunrise. Overall coverage is uncertain, but river valleys at the least could fog over. Southwesterly surface to 925mb winds increase Monday morning ahead of a shortwave that moves across the Dakotas late Sunday night. The warm air advection will serve to raise the ceiling a few degrees higher for the continued warming trend of high temps. Cloud cover seems unlikely Monday, though the 200-400mb layer may be near saturation at times for some scattered cirrus. NBM came in on the low end of guidance and therefore have raised high temps 1-2 degrees into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 206 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Warmer temperatures only look to last through Tuesday as ensemble guidance signals a longwave trough expanding over the eastern US later this week. Surface low-pressure associated with this trough will shift winds to become northerly, and with that, ample cold-air advection. Nocturnal radiative cooling and relatively clear skies could allow overnight low temperatures for the second half of the week to fall below freezing. Much of the area is expected to remain dry through the week, but shortwaves associated with the changing weather pattern may induce periods of additional cloud cover and low chances for precipitation (10-20%). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1058 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 Winds this afternoon will be out of the northwest at 5-10 kts for KDSM/KOTM and 10-15 kts for KFOD/KMCW/KALO before diminishing after sunset. Main impacts include patchy fog in the vicinity of KDSM/KOTM and winds shifting to be southerly/southwesterly for all TAF sites overnight. Winds will become gustier (15-20 kts) by 17z tomorrow. VFR conditions expected throughout the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...De Bruin LONG TERM...Morrow/Dodson AVIATION...Morrow/Dodson
