663 FXUS63 KDMX 071733 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1133 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is ongoing this morning and is expected to clear after sunrise. - Seasonably warm temperatures and dry weather will be in place this weekend through the first half of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 221 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 High pressure dominates this morning and is centered over southeastern parts of the state, where calm winds are observed. Patches of fog have formed across Iowa river valleys, given light winds and mostly clear skies. Cirrus is building in from the west and may limit radiative cooling just enough to keep fog from becoming widespread. Some of the models suggest fog becoming more widespread between 10-12z, though by that time cirrus will likely be overhead across central and eastern parts of the state and perhaps only northwest Iowa will have the clearing needed for more widespread fog. Still, winds may increase slightly in that part of the state this morning and mitigate widespread fog potential. The coolest low temps this morning are still forecasted to be in the upper 20s. Road temps are generally in the mid to upper 30s, however, in northwest Iowa road temps are sub-freezing and there is non-zero potential to see a few slick spots on elevated road surfaces like bridges and overpasses should fog become dense. Certainty in high temps in the mid 50s this afternoon has increased since yesterday. Stratus does not look to be as widespread as a few of the CAMs had been suggesting. However, stratus in northwest Missouri may nudge into our CWA after sunrise given increasing southwesterly stearing flow. This could limit diurnal heating early on, but even still this cloud layer is expected to mix out by mid day. On Sunday, the synoptic pattern is still generally the same, with western ridging and eastern Canada troughing with a carousel of shortwaves pivoting around the Great Lakes. A deeper wave moves across the Great Lakes on Sunday with an associated surface low and trailing cold front. The front moves across the state Sunday morning, though the new airmass won't be all that cold. In fact, ridging will still be dominant over Iowa and mainly westerly winds will allow for another day of slightly higher high temps. Some mid and low level cloud cover is possible with the frontal passage and may be the difference between highs in the mid 50s vs lower 60s, though 60s appear more likely. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026 The extended forecast will be dominated by a persistent surface high pressure system building into the region which will promote dry weather and a gradual warming trend. Daytime highs are forecast to moderate into the low to mid-60s by the middle of next week, with nocturnal radiational cooling allowing overnight lows to fall into the upper-30s to low-40s. While a series of weak mid-level disturbances may periodically increase cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, keeping the area dry through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 A stratus deck situated over and south of KDSM will slowly dissipate over the next few hours. Winds this afternoon will be out of the southwest at 10-15 kts and relaxing through 0z. A frontal boundary advecting from the northwest early tomorrow morning will result in winds become westerly/northwesterly. Additional high-based cloud cover may be associated with this passing front, but despite this, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...De Bruin LONG TERM...Vorst AVIATION...Morrow/Dodson
