438 FXUS63 KDMX 062012 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 212 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some periods of sun look possible in central to northeast Iowa today, but temperatures remain cool overall with highs in the 40s. - A steady warming trend begins this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026 This afternoon's surface analysis shows the local area under the influence of a 1028 mb surface high pressure dome; leading to dry conditions and clearing skies. A cool air mass remains in place, with surface temperatures currently lingering in the low to mid-40s. Through the remainder of the afternoon, the surface high will maintain dry weather across the short-term forecast period. An upper- level shortwave trough will traverse southern Canada overnight. Although the primary synoptic ascent will remain displaced well to the north, a surface warm-frontal boundary will track through the area overnight. This feature will promote increasing high-to-mid- level cloud cover alongside a shift to low-level warm air advection via westerly flow. The primary forecast challenge overnight centers on minimum temperatures and cloud distribution. In locations where thicker cloud cover persists, relatively warmer temperatures are expected. Conversely, areas that remain clear will experience efficient radiational cooling. In addition, boundary layer moisture trapped beneath a deep inversion may support the development of patchy radiation fog. With advection fog tied to the passing boundary. Despite lingering clouds keeping some spots warmer, overnight lows are still progged to drop into the upper-20s to mid- 30s area-wide. Following the frontal passage on Saturday, low-level warm air advection will support a rebound in daytime temperatures into the low to mid-50s. This mild warming trend is expected to persist through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure will maintain dry, cool conditions today, followed by the passage of a weak warm front tonight. This boundary will bring variable cloud cover and potential patchy fog, complicating overnight radiational cooling and yielding lows in the upper-20s to mid-30s. Temperatures will rebound into the 50s on Saturday and continue to moderate through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026 The extended forecast will be dominated by a persistent surface high pressure system building into the region which will promote dry weather and a gradual warming trend. Daytime highs are forecast to moderate into the low to mid-60s by the middle of next week, with nocturnal radiational cooling allowing overnight lows to fall into the upper-30s to low-40s. While a series of weak mid-level disturbances may periodically increase cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, keeping the area dry through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026 VFR conditions are starting to build into the region as stratus clouds have begun to scatter out. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail throughout the day; however, MVFR CIGS may build back into the area overnight especially at KFOD and KDSM and linger through 14Z-15Z. Also, fog may be possible overnight but confidence on locations and coverage is lacking; therefore, opted to keep fog out of the TAF. Lastly, winds are expected to be light and variable through the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vorst LONG TERM...Vorst AVIATION...Vorst
