789 FXUS63 KDMX 061147 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 547 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patches of drizzle and fog linger this morning in central and southern Iowa but dissipates through the mid morning. - Some periods of sun look possible in central to northeast Iowa today, but temperatures remain cool overall with highs in the 40s. - A steady warming trend begins this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026 The main story through the rest of the overnight into the early morning hours is the patches of drizzle and fog across central and southern portions of Iowa. RAP profiles show a shallow unstable layer from near the surface to about 5kft in which the profile is mainly saturated and containing ascent. So far the drizzle has been fairly light, but a few locations, particularly in southern Iowa have experienced some visibility drops. Conditions are expected to improve by morning as slightly drier air is advected in. Stratus is already clearing in northern parts of the state, and this clearing line may even make it to central parts of the state after 12z. Said stratus deck will play a role in high temperature forecasting today. By 15z, latest RAP trends have 1000-900mb 90% RH contour over DSM from NW to SE, meaning the northeast half of the state could have clearing by morning while the southwest half remains covered in stratus. On one hand the clearing line is advancing south quickly and ahead of guidance. On the other, cloud bearing layer winds weaken this morning, slowing dry air advection. Additionally, forecast profiles still favor stratocumulus redevelopment in the afternoon in areas that can clear out stratus. All things considered, the northeastern half of the state, likely including DSM, is expected to get some sunshine and warm several degrees above areas in southwest Iowa. Highs in the low to mid 40s are expected with a bit less breeze than the previous few days. Through Friday evening and Saturday, surface high pressure moves across the state, and warmer 850mb temps are advected in as Plains ridging becomes better established and 850mb winds become more westerly. The result is continued trapping of the near-surface moist layer below an ever-lowering warm and dry inversion. In the case of Friday evening, the moist layer is once again neutral or unstable, but is more subsident and shallow. So, rather than drizzle, fog or stratus may be more favored. Given calm winds under the high pressure, fog will be a possibility Saturday morning wherever clouds can clear, which currently seems to be in southeast Iowa according to the NBM. Also, clearing and radiative cooling Friday night into Saturday, wherever it may happen, could bring lows into the lower 30s, and could have a few areas below freezing by sunrise. The jury is still out on whether we can expect some sunshine on Saturday with major differences in GFS vs RAP/RRFS forecast profiles and highs ranging from to upper 50s to lower 40s. Current forecast reflects warmer end of the ensembles, but this point has forecast bust potential and trends will need to be watched today. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 While the extended forecast is expected to remain largely quiet, several passing synoptic features traversing the CONUS will bring periods of cloudiness. The first of these features is a positively tilted trough forecast to be oriented from the Great Lakes into the Desert Southwest. While precipitation is not expected due to a deep layer of dry ambient air, high-level clouds are forecast to stream across the region. Otherwise, the area will remain sandwiched between passing shortwaves to both the north and south while staying dry. Temperatures will run above normal through the period, with daytime highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows settling into the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026 An MVFR stratus deck is making its way across the state, with KMCW/KALO already under clear skies, and KDSM/KOTM/KFOD clearing out a couple hours from now. After skies clear, several hours of VFR is expected before cumulus build back in this afternoon. Overall coverage is uncertain, though periods of at least SCT is expected. After 3z, it becomes increasingly likely that MVFR stratus coverage increases, as well as the possibility of fog, though timing and certainty is too low to include at this time && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...De Bruin LONG TERM...Vorst AVIATION...De Bruin
