611 FXUS63 KDMX 052333 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 533 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy today. Breezy with patches of drizzle through the afternoon, then diminishing winds and dry conditions later this evening. - Generally cool and mostly cloudy conditions persist into Friday, then some clearing and a steady warming trend from the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Current surface analysis across the CONUS reveals a significant shift in synoptic regimes compared to 24 hours ago. The surface cyclone previously centered over northern Wisconsin has translated northeastward into eastern Canada, with its associated cold front draped along the Atlantic Seaboard. A secondary surface wave is positioned over the northern Great Lakes, with its trailing cold front currently advancing across the local area. Upstream of this boundary, a 1024 mb surface high, centered over central Canada, is building southeastward, exerting its influence over the region as the front clears. Locally, more seasonable, November-like temperatures have settled in, accompanied by gusty north- northwesterly winds yielding blustery conditions. Lingering light drizzle and rain showers along the frontal boundary continue to exit the forecast area. Through the remainder of the day and into the extended period, persistent cloud cover and associated temperature impacts represent the primary forecast challenges. As the primary mid-to-upper-level low and its parent trough translate eastward, downstream meridional flow aloft is driving sustained northerly winds and robust CAA across the CWA. While this advection regime supports more seasonable temperatures today, abundant low-level moisture trapped beneath a stout inversion will sustain widespread stratocumulus decks through much of the short-term window. Forecast soundings depict this shallow saturation persisting beneath the inversion through midday Saturday, despite upstream mid-level height rises and anticyclogenesis over the region. The combination of thermal capping and negligible insolation will compress the diurnal range, suppressing daytime highs while keeping overnight minimums elevated. High-resolution guidance does indicate the potential for cloud breaks late Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise, afternoon highs today and Friday will range from the lower 40s across northern zones to the upper 40s and lower 50s across the southern half of the CWA. Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south. Friday night minimums feature added complexity based on the spatial coverage of clearing and localized radiational cooling; current solutions place readings in the upper 20s across the northeast where clearing is most likely, and in the lower 30s where cloud cover remains intact. As the inversion erodes and clouds scatter on Saturday, a moderating temperature trend will commence through the rest of the weekend. In summary, a passing secondary cold front is bringing seasonably cool, blustery air mass to the CWA along with light precipitation. While surface high pressure is slowly building into the region, abundant low-level moisture trapped beneath a persistent inversion will keep skies overcast and diurnal temperature spreads narrow through Friday, holding highs in the 40s to lower 50s. High pressure, clearing skies, and subsequent erosion of the inversion over the weekend will allow temperatures to moderate back above normal by Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 139 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 While the extended forecast is expected to remain largely quiet, several passing synoptic features traversing the CONUS will bring periods of cloudiness. The first of these features is a positively tilted trough forecast to be oriented from the Great Lakes into the Desert Southwest. While precipitation is not expected due to a deep layer of dry ambient air, high-level clouds are forecast to stream across the region. Otherwise, the area will remain sandwiched between passing shortwaves to both the north and south while staying dry. Temperatures will run above normal through the period, with daytime highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows settling into the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 533 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the overnight hours. Winds have been breezy out of the north to northeast but will continue to diminish over the next couple of hours, becoming less than 8kts. . As daybreak approaches, clouds are expected to gradually clear, with terminals transitioning to VFR conditions by late morning into the early afternoon hours. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vorst LONG TERM...Vorst AVIATION...TDR
