625 FXUS63 KDMX 050802 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 202 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy today. Breezy with patches of drizzle in the morning, then diminishing winds and dry conditions later today. - Generally cool and mostly cloudy conditions persist into Friday, then some clearing and a steady warming trend from the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 202 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 A large gyre centered over Wisconsin and far northeastern Iowa is gradually pushing eastward this morning as it is swept out by a trough moving across Hudson Bay and Ontario. A large stratus shield surrounding the gyre blankets all of Iowa and neighboring states, with its western and southern edges currently from extreme southeastern South Dakota, down across far eastern Nebraska, and over to far northern Missouri. Meanwhile, a surface trough is moving southeastward through Iowa, and behind it modestly gusting northwest winds are pushing in. The temperature is not falling much, however, due to the thick cloud cover in place. A few pockets of drizzle also continue to move through, but are steadily fading out as the gyre begins to depart. A surface ridge will later build down the region later today and tonight, lying right over Iowa on Friday and bringing lighter and eventually calm winds to end the week. The primary forecast challenge is determining how long the low cloud cover will persist, as that will significantly impact temperatures over the next couple of days. Satellite imagery currently shows the large stratus shield over Iowa is barely moving. Some of the global models, primarily the GFS, indicate the clouds will gradually move out tonight (that is, Thursday night) as the trough departs and the ridge builds in. However, these solutions are not realizing that there is currently an even larger low stratus field spilling rapidly from southern Canada into the northern High Plains within the surface ridge. The high-res solutions are picking up on this, as these clouds will arrive in our area later today and reinforce/enlarge the stratus shield across the region. The 06Z HRRR, in particular, is very well initialized with current cloud cover and blankets the entire region in low ceilings through the end of its run Friday night. There are some indications of breaks at times, especially in northeastern Iowa late Friday, but overall it is likely cloudy conditions will prevail for the next couple of days. This is also supported by forecast soundings, such as the RRFS which depicts a persistent shallow saturated layer right into Saturday morning. In light of this trend, have maintained high temperatures today on the cooler side of guidance, but the practice of lowering daytime highs and warming overnight lows may need to extend through Friday night as we continue to assess the cloud potential. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 202 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 By Saturday morning the old gyre covering the region early this morning will have moved into the northeastern U.S., while a compact but energetic 500 MB shortwave on its heels crosses near the Minnesota/Canada border and another lobe deepens near the Arizona/Mexico border. A weak mid-level trough stretching between these systems will move overhead will help push the surface ridge lying over the region early Saturday southeastward, bringing a brief return of southerly flow to our forecast area. Forecast soundings also indicate the departure of the ridge may finally clear the low cloud shield out, as discussed in the short term section above. Thereafter, Iowa will enter a west northwesterly steering flow regime in the first half of next week, generally supporting dry weather with a series of rapid and weak surface troughs and ridges and steady airmass modification. By early next week, on any days where there is sunshine and southerly flow ahead of an approaching trough, temperatures may rebound well into the 60s before being moderated again. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1054 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 IFR ceilings and light showers span much of northern Iowa, with MVFR ceilings and drizzle central and south. The light showers/drizzle will continue drifting south and eastward through the morning, tapering off by early Thursday morning. As showers move through KFOD, KMCW and KALO, ceiling & visibility may improve temporarily, then worsen again after they move out. Winds will remain breezy around 10 to 15 kts out of the west northwest with sporadic gusts around 20 kts possible through the morning. Winds become more northerly through Thursday, but remain breezy through the day with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible. Ceilings and visibilities improve some through Thursday, but MVFR conditions persist through the day. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Dodson
