478 FXUS63 KDMX 292353 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 653 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunny and dry Thursday afternoon with rain and a few thunderstorms returning tonight. - Rain will remain in the forecast for much of Friday and the daytime Saturday. - After a break Sunday, rain and storms will return Sunday night and last through at least midweek. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 The remaining stratus and fog burned off in the late morning, so most of Iowa will be clear this afternoon. Some easterly flow will come off high pressure over the Great Lakes region and into Wisconsin, which opens up the chance for radiational cooling in northeast Iowa. Lows have been adjusted with some mid 30 possible in northeast Iowa. Southerly flow will reestablish itself overnight in the south. This is in response to a shortwave ejecting into the region, which will also usher in our next chance of rain for much of Friday. Early on in the event (mainly around sunrise Friday) some scattered nonsevere thunderstorms will be possible in the southern half of Iowa. Rain will persist through the day and another round of storms are possible with the return of the LLJ. While most all the state will see rain, highest amounts will be in the southern half with totals over half an inch. Thunderstorms will push amounts close to an inch in localized areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 The shortwave will be slow to exit the region and troughing over the Rockies will pull the moisture axis north. This will result in continued rain chances moving into northern Iowa through the day Saturday. Light showers will linger in southern Iowa through Halloween night as the moisture axis is pulled west. Amounts Saturday will give the highest amounts to northern Iowa. Height rises will reside over Iowa on Sunday, and the advection wing will have lifted into Minnesota. This will keep Sunday cloudy and cooler, but dry. The complex synoptic trough will increase southwest flow Sunday night with rain beginning to arrive. Its influence will keep precipitation chances going all the way through at least Wednesday. The highest chance for thunderstorms looks to be Monday afternoon and evening. This is when the lower and upper level jet align parallel to the cold front and the instability axis makes a run north. Severe weather is questionable at this range given the overnight and morning storms; cloudcover from these will make surface destabilization challenging. Beyond Monday, a northern stream wave will usher in another cold front from the northwest, reinforcing the wrap around precip from the first system. Widespread moderate rain is possible from the cumulative rounds of rain. Most of the state could see a total between 1 to 2 inches, but the rainfall will be spread in a large enough timespan that hydrology impacts will be minimal. A cooldown follows the complex of waves with high temperatures returning to the 50s by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the evening, though will see a gradual increase in cloud cover from southwest to northeast through the overnight to morning Friday. This cloud cover will come with the potential for rain shower activity, along with the isolated areas of embedded storms. Highest probabilities for this activity looks to occur at/near KDSM and KOTM after 09z through 15-18z, with lesser chances further north. Activity may continue at times through the afternoon to early evening, though confidence on timing and coverage is more uncertain in this issuance. Ceilings will lower, reaching MVFR territory by mid morning into the afternoon, with periods of IFR possible at times towards the end of the current forecast period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jimenez LONG TERM...Jimenez AVIATION...Bury
