144 FXUS63 KDMX 161943 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty north/northwest winds gradually diminish into this evening. - Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rain showers this morning were a bit more widespread than initially thought at this time yesterday but have since diminished this afternoon. The gusty north to northwest winds remain with sustained winds around 15-30 mph, and gusts to 25-40 mph. Gusts have started to come down in northern Iowa and the highest gusts as of early afternoon were in central Iowa. These gusts will continue to diminish gradually through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Temperatures today have been chilly as expected with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s and feel-like temperatures with the gusty winds only in the 40s. Temperatures will continue to fall tonight with evening activities experiencing temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s and feel-like temperatures largely in the 30s, even with the wind diminishing. You'll certainly want to take those jackets and blankets should you be attending any outdoor events tonight! Overnight lows tonight will similarly be chilly and as has been advertised over the last several days, near to just above/below freezing. Confidence in the widespread 32 degrees or below temperatures is not as high as it was this time yesterday. The surface high pressure swinging through the region is not quite as far north and moves out quicker. This has decreased the opportunity for prime radiational cooling. In northern to portions of western Iowa, this means the pressure gradient will increase sooner allowing for winds to begin increasing again during the later overnight. The faster departure of the high also means winds out of the southwest return in much of the area prior to daybreak Saturday. As noted on the previous shift, there is also a steep inversion that remains in place through the night. All this to say, we may not drop off as efficiently or as low as we otherwise could have. It will still be the coldest night of the season so far with a widespread frost expected. Temperatures themselves may only near or fall just below freezing in some locations and be at or just above in others. Rural areas have the better chances to fall below while urban areas may be slightly warmer. Kept the Freeze Warning as is with the chance that these near 33 degree temperatures in portions of central/southeast Iowa may be able to dip back to that 32 degree mark and any sensitive vegetation is likely to be affected regardless. Some patchy fog may also be possible but confidence is low with the increasing winds and residence time of the high pressure. Saturday will feature ample sunshine and start a warming trend again as highs climb back towards the upper 50s to low 60s. As noted, winds out of the southwest will be breezy, especially for the northwest half of the area with gusts to around 15-30 mph, the highest gusts in the north/northwest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A continued warming trend is expected Sunday and beyond. Temperatures return to the 60s to end the weekend and start the new work week and then climb to the 70s by midweek. Outside of some breezy conditions and clouds at times next week as systems beneath the upper ridge near the region, the going forecast remains pleasant and dry. Rain chances then start to return late next week or weekend with details to be refined over the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Widespread scattered to broken MVFR ceilings remain across the area early this afternoon and will gradually trend towards low VFR through the rest of the afternoon. Skies will then gradually clear from late afternoon into the evening with VFR conditions then expected through the rest of the TAF period. Any lingering light rain/sprinkles remain in portions of east to southeast Iowa but are not bringing much in the way of impacts. Gusty winds out of the northwest this afternoon will also gradually decrease with gusts of 25-35 knots initially becoming less than 20 knots by late afternoon. Winds then become light and variable later this evening into the overnight before increasing again slightly and turning out of the southwest on Saturday morning. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ004>007- 015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>096. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ097. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05
