217 FXUS63 KDMX 141734 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers possible until sunrise south/southeast, then dry and cloudy with highs in the upper 50s to 60s. - More widespread precipitation expected Wednesday night through Thursday. - Turning much cooler and windy to end the work week, with frost possible by early Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A look at early morning observations shows dry conditions across the greater majority of the forecast area, outside of a few spots of weak shower activity over southeastern Iowa, which is where weak moisture convergence near the elevated boundary and weak lift with the 25-30 knot jet that is edging into southeast Iowa is occurring. The expectation is that some isolated weak showers and occasional but minimal lightning may occur at times over south/southeast Iowa at least over the next few hours or so, before turning dry across the forecast area near sunrise as the forcing and moisture overhead shift further southward given the approaching area of high pressure from the Northern Plains. Cloud cover otherwise continues to increase as mid-level clouds lift north/east from Kansas/Missouri, where better moisture and forcing have led to more widespread shower and storm activity, while low stratus is diving south across Minnesota and is very close to the MN/IA border as of the time of this writing. As of result, overnight temperatures have not decreased much yet as values sit in the upper 50s to mid 60s over the southern half of the state, while north to north-central Iowa see values in the mid 40s to low 50s where clearing over the last few hours have allowed for efficient radiational cooling to occur. Cloud cover per trends and latest guidance is expected to move over the entire forecast area throughout the day. The aforementioned surface high pressure will move southeast/east across the region today, which will allow for generally dry but cloudy conditions into this evening, paired with north/northeasterly winds and highs reaching into the upper 50s to 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Theta-e advection increases later Wednesday afternoon into evening ahead of the upper low coming out of the Four Corners area Wednesday, crossing through the Central Plains Thursday and then being absorbed by the strong upper trough coming out of Canada and swinging through the region Thursday night into Friday. After being shunted to the south during a good portion of the daytime Wednesday, moisture returns late Wednesday night through Thursday. The end result is any showery activity Wednesday evening becomes more widespread rain during the day Thursday with conditions drying out Thursday evening. Windy and much cooler conditions will follow Thursday night into Friday as lows drop into the upper 30s to 40s with highs Friday in the 50s. Temperatures drop further Friday night into Saturday with lows in the low 30s introducing the possibility for some frost to start the weekend. The windy conditions from the daytime will subside by evening as a high pressure moves into the area. This high and an upper ridge overhead will keep conditions dry for Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Stratus continues across much of the area except for a small strip in portions of central Iowa. Many locations remain at MVFR early this afternoon with only minimal improvement expected later this afternoon before clouds thicken into this evening as rain moves into and through the area southwest to northeast with showers starting later this evening before becoming more widespread rain on Thursday and gradually tapering off into Thursday evening/early Friday morning. Ceilings will degrade into Thursday becoming IFR to even LIFR at times with visibilities also falling at times during periods of more persistent rain and any fog. Timing and related impacts may still need some fine-tuning in subsequent issuances. Confidence in thunder was too low to include at KOTM but could be needed in a subsequent issuance as well. Winds out of the northeast will remain lighter today into tonight but much stronger winds are expected later Thursday into Friday, beyond the end of this TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05
