686
FXUS63 KDMX 130353
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1053 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record warmth continues today with breezy conditions
through the afternoon.
- Low chances (<20%) for rain far south/southwest overnight.
Greater chances (40-50+%) central and south late
Tuesday/Tuesday night/early overnight Wednesday. A strong
storm with hail, gusty winds, or pockets of heavy rain may
occur.
- More widespread precipitation expected Wednesday night and
Thursday.
- Seasonal temperatures through mid week and then turning much
cooler to end the week and start next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today in our southwest flow
regime. The thermal ridge nudging into the area has resulted in
another very warm day with temperatures well into the 80s with some
low 90s still likely before peak heating subsides this afternoon.
Some relief is in sight. A weak cold front remains draped across
northwest Iowa with temperatures behind in the the 60s to 70s
closest to the front/Iowa, and temperatures in the 40s to 50s
further upstream. The passage of this front will be slow to progress
through the rest of the area tonight into the overnight and will
stall out in the southeast/far south through much of Tuesday. The
timing of this front keeps record warm low temperatures in play at
most sites and potentially Ottumwa and Mason City for record high
temperatures themselves. See the climate section below for the list
of record warm and record warm minimum temperatures today. Breezy
winds have been the other common feature with winds out of the
southwest gusting to 20-30 mph. These winds may hang on a bit longer
in the north tonight, but will otherwise decrease around sunset. As
the front passes, mostly dry conditions are still expected with
limited forcing and soundings indicating very dry profiles overall.
May start to see some radar returns the later half of the
overnight/early Tuesday morning in southwest Iowa where a few
sprinkles may be possible but the higher rain chances hold off until
Tuesday afternoon and beyond.
The aforementioned stalled boundary will be a foci for storm
development especially as the low level jet ramps up Tuesday night.
Although the overall parameter space and jet orientation is
better/more favorable into MO and KS, there is a possibility for
some late evening to mid overnight strong to marginally severe
storms with hail and gusty winds as well as a few pockets of heavy
rain in southern to portions of central Iowa. Shower/storm
chances do increase from around midday through the afternoon
Tuesday so some non-severe storms are possible before this
later night/early overnight round, and then some storms may
linger after into Wednesday morning, but 03-09Z (10p-4AM) looks
to be our main window for stronger storms.
The cold front passage will bring cooler temperatures in the 60s to
70s north of the front while areas in the far south/southeast in the
warm sector have another day of temperatures in the 80s pending
cloud cover timing.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
A dry period is then expected some of Wednesday daytime as surface
high pressure returns to the area briefly. By evening, theta-e
advection increases ahead of the approaching upper low off the
Rockies and the lee surface low moves through the region on Thursday
followed by the upper trough with a strong system also coming out of
Canada later Thursday into Friday. This will bring more widespread
precipitation chances from Wednesday night through Thursday.
Temperatures will be closer to normal and in the 60s to low 70s
through midweek. Then, behind the departing system, stronger cold
air advection will arrive sending temperatures into the 50s to
low 60s for Friday and Saturday and low temperatures in the 30s
Friday night/Saturday morning. Will need to watch for frost
potential to start the weekend with a surface high swinging
through. With this high and an upper ridge, conditions are
looking drier Friday through the weekend. Friday does look to be
breezy to windy which could make it feel even cooler and will
have to monitor for any fire weather conditions should there be
enough time for fuels to dry after the rain on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Area of MVFR stratus is moving over north central Iowa though
there has been some erosion on the southern end. This will
impact KFOD/KMCW/KALO early in the period. Some uncertainty
regarding residence time of the stratus but it will persist the
longest at KMCW. A few showers and storms will move across far
southern Iowa through 15z. KOTM may be clipped by this activity.
Additional showers and storms will become more widespread from
mid-afternoon and into the evening hours over central and
southern Iowa. The wind will remain mostly from the north to
northwest will diminish below 12kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
.Record Max & Max Minimum Temperatures for Select Central Iowa Cities...
==================================================================
| 10/12 Previous | 10/12 Previous | Period
| High Record/ | Max T Record/ | of
City | Min Temp Year | Year | Record
===================================================================
Des Moines | 66/1879 | 91/1899 | 1878-
Mason City | 61/2008 | 89/1975 | 1903-
Ottumwa | 68/1928 | 88/1975 | 1923-
Waterloo | 64/1899 | 95/1930 | 1895-
===================================================================
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Donavon
CLIMATE...05
