126 FXUS63 KDMX 102336 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 636 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very mild temperatures with near record highs through Monday. - Precipitation possible central and south Tuesday night/Wednesday. - Widespread showers and storms Wednesday night/Thursday followed by much cooler weather. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Good surface pressure gradient across Iowa today as the state is situated between large high pressure to the east and surface low to the west/northwest. Good boundary layer mixing also ongoing across the state under mostly sunny skies. That has led to gusty south winds with gusts topping 30 mph north and west. Temperatures this afternoon are once again outpacing guidance and will be near record highs in the next few hours with highs in in the upper 80s. The thermal ridge will be over Iowa through Monday before the overall pattern begins to break down. Deep layer moisture advection will begin by Sunday and will increase even more into Monday. The net result will be a gradual increase in clouds moving across Iowa and increasing diurnal dew points. While not expected precipitation through the daytime Monday, the increased moisture and clouds will lead to an airmass that is not as efficient at heating along with some solar filtering though the overall airmass will be slightly warmer with the thermal ridge. Mixing will not be as robust as today either. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be near to a bit cooler than today. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Subtropical high pressure will lift into the lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday and Wednesday while upper low pressure enters the Four Corners region. This will amplify the southwest flow over Iowa. Despite this evolution, the Gulf Moisture stream will be veered to the southeast of Iowa as surface high pressure moves into the Northern Plains. This is trending precipitation chances southward Tuesday and Tuesday night. The greater chances for precipitation are later in the week from Wednesday night into Thursday as the main upper level system lifts out of the southwest. Temperatures will gradually cool through this period as well. Broad northerly flow will follow the upper system passage and usher a cooler, fall like airmass into to Iowa for the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Gusty winds of 15-25 kts out of the south will gradually diminish through sunset. The low level inversion tonight will allow for LLWS conditions (40-45 kts) across all TAF sites except KOTM until Sunday morning as daytime heating begins. Gusty winds of 15-20 kts out of the south will return Sunday afternoon. Mostly clear skies prevail through the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Donavon LONG TERM...Donavon AVIATION...Morrow/Hagenhoff
