749 FXUS63 KDMX 092355 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 655 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures through the weekend. Dry and gusty conditions on Saturday, with elevated fire weather concerns in northwestern Iowa. - Slight chances for precipitation in northern Iowa Monday before a signal for increased chances again midweek. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Currently at the upper levels, the central US sits under weak ridging. At the surface, temperatures are warming across the region with southerly winds gusting up to 20-25 mph. Northeast Iowa is slower to warm due to easterly winds and lingering cloud cover. As we head into peak heating, unseasonably warm temperatures are expected with highs in the low to mid 80s south and mid to upper 70s north (around 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year). Saturday once again brings a warm and windy day. The remnants of tropical cyclone Isaias will drift northward before moving off to the east and departing on Sunday. While the main impacts of this tropical system will stay southeast of the area, the passage will cause an upper level col region to be positioned over the southern portion of the state. How this effects the surface is that winds will be lighter in that area and potentially some increased cloud cover. At the same time, a broad low pressure system is expected to move through the Dakotas, tightening the pressure gradient at the surface in northern and western Iowa. This will cause winds to increase to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph in the northwestern half of the state. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s and minimum RH values in the 30s will support elevated fire weather concerns in those northwestern counties during the day on Saturday. The gustier winds and well mixed layer will also bump up temperatures on Saturday to mid 80s CWA wide. As the remnants of Isaias departs into the Atlantic on Sunday into the beginning of the workweek, the upper level flow will once again become zonal/weak ridging. Decent low level mixing will once again make winds breezy from the south with gusts up to 20 mph and make for temperatures in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Monday will once again be a similar story to Sunday in the southern portion of the state with highs in the mid 80s and winds gusting to 20 mph. In the north, slight precipitation chances (10-20%) exist as a shortwave moves across Manitoba/Ontario kicking off a weak surface low pressure area and bringing an associated cold front through the area. The passage of the cold front will allow fall-like temperatures to return to the area with temperatures dropping back into the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. By the middle of next week, there is a signal for the return to an active period with multiple ensembles honing in on rain Wednesday into Thursday. Models are in good agreement that a large trough will dig into the Rocky Mountains and then lift towards the Midwest. There are significant differences between the global models from run to run in the timing and phasing of the trough. Those differences have large impacts on any weather that will be experienced in Iowa. The European and Canadian models currently have a more open wave pattern that moves across the area. While the GFS has a closed low that is weaker and slower to phase with the upper level flow. Model trends will be something to watch in the coming days to see how global models begin to handle these variations in solutions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Surface winds of 5-10 kts will be veering from southeasterly to southerly this evening. LLWS conditions are expected after sunset across all TAF sites except KOTM and diminishing just after sunrise. Daytime heating tomorrow will allow southerly wind gusts of 25-30 kts in the north (KFOD, KMCW, KALO) and 15-25 kts in the south (KDSM, KOTM) through the end of the period. Mostly clear skies prevail through the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee/Wyss LONG TERM...Lee/Wyss AVIATION...Morrow/Dodson
