911 FXUS63 KDMX 091727 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today and Saturday. Breezy and dry on Saturday, with elevated fire weather concerns in northwestern Iowa. - Slight chances for rain on Monday in northern Iowa before fall-like temperatures return. Perhaps a return to more active weather towards the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 The latest surface analysis shows a surface wave moving out of the western High Plains with a warm front skirting the local area. This warm frontal boundary is the primary driving force for ongoing showers and thunderstorms. While the severe thunderstorm threat has largely waned, occasional embedded thunder remains possible through the remainder of the overnight period. Outside of the convective activity, temperatures remain mild across the region. Areas northeast of the ongoing showers and storms sit in the low to mid- 50s, whereas locations along and southwest of the rain have warmed into the low to mid-60s. An upper-level trough centered over southwestern Canada, along with its associated surface low, will gradually pivot eastward toward the Rockies. As this system approaches, the warm front currently oriented northwest-to-southeast across the CWA will lift northeastward through the region. Showers will taper off as the boundary pushes north, yielding a strong warm air advection regime. Post-warm frontal high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper- 80s across the southwest and into the upper-70s across the northeast. While most climatological high temperature records appear secure today, the record of 85 degrees set at Lamoni in 1938 may be threatened. Otherwise, conditions will turn dry and warm today, accompanied by increasing southerly winds this afternoon. Saturday will bring another warm and dry day; however, the combination of dry air and a tightening pressure gradient will lead to elevated fire weather concerns, particularly across western and northern Iowa where recent precipitation deficits persist. To account for dry boundary-layer mixing biases, afternoon dewpoints were lowered for Saturday, and the 90th percentile NBM was incorporated for wind gusts to reflect a strengthening low-level jet during the afternoon. A warm front lifting across the region will end overnight showers and bring unseasonably warm, dry conditions today, with near-record highs possible around Lamoni. Elevated fire weather risks will develop on Saturday as dry air, gusty southerly winds, and low dewpoints combine across western and northern Iowa. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026 On Sunday, temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with winds lessening as the surface low pressure system moves off toward the Great Lakes. Going into Monday, the upper level flow will once again turn zonal as the remnants of tropical cyclone Isaias pushes off into the Atlantic. There will be slight chances for light precipitation on Monday in the far northern counties as a shortwave moves across Manitoba/Ontario; however, being so far disconnected from the greatest lift has led precipitation chances to be less than 20%. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday should be pleasant and fall-like with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s before southwesterly flow aloft returns mid-week and a large trough digs over the western US. Effects from this trough are uncertain at this time due to model differences, but will be something to monitor over the weekend into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Gusts of 15-25 kts have been observed this morning across the area and are expected to continue through the afternoon and evening. Have introduced LLWS into the forecast overnight for all TAF sites except KOTM due to winds at 2kft expected to be at 40kts. KALO and KDSM are on the edge, but opted to add with winds at 2kft at 35 kts. During Saturday morning, winds will once again begin to increase and continue to through the day. Gusts of 25-35 kts in the north can be expected with 15-20 kts in the south. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vorst LONG TERM...Lee/Wyss AVIATION...Wyss
