616 FXUS63 KDMX 022326 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 626 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry period over the next 7 days. - Seasonal temperatures through the period with modest warming mid to late next week. - A few periods with overnight/early morning fog are possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 High pressure centered over Minnesota and ridged through Iowa has brought widespread welcomed sunshine this afternoon. A region of mid- level cloudiness has been slowing moving eastward across eastern South Dakota and into southwest Minnesota. Afternoon dew points mixed out more than expected, especially considering all of the wet ground across the state. Afternoon dew points in the 30s were common over much of Iowa except for far southeast Iowa. This cloudiness is in an area of kinematic forcing associated with a short wave and some mid-level theta-e advection. This cloud cover will clip across northern Iowa into this evening and overnight. The forecast challenge for tonight is radiation cooling in areas with clear skies and the potential for any fog. Temperatures dropped below guidance last night however, fog was not prevalent. Low temperatures will again be near to below guidance. Not expecting widespread fog again tonight however areas with shallow fog and fog in river valleys is possible. The area of high pressure will become more tilted to the northeast leading to an increasing pressure gradient across Iowa as a broad trough of low pressure moves into the Dakotas and Nebraska. The increasing pressure gradient and deeper mixing will result in breezy to gusty southeast winds across central and northwest Iowa. Short wave energy will move into Minnesota and far northern Iowa during the afternoon and evening. Precipitation is possible across Minnesota but a discontinuity temporally between forcing and moisture should keep northern Iowa dry. Ridge of high pressure fills back into Iowa Saturday night. There is a greater signal for fog potential by early Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Sunday through much of next week will feature modified westerly flow across Iowa. This pattern will feature mild days with cooler nights and similar to seasonal conditions for early October. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. The forecast is also mostly dry and should allow the area to dry out with occasional breezy days helping to accelerate the evaporation and drying of the ground surface. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 VFR conditions are forecasted to prevail through the TAF period. FEW/SCT high clouds (FL100 or higher) are expected to stick around in the northern TAF sites with SKC for the rest of the sites. Winds will gust to around 20kts at KMCW Saturday afternoon, but remain lower at the other terminals. There remains a low chance for fog tonight (<10%), but confidence/probability is too low to include in the TAFs. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Donavon LONG TERM...Donavon AVIATION...Wyss
