678 FXUS63 KDMX 020721 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 221 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gorgeous fall weather today with dry and mostly sunny conditions. - Dry pattern sets up with comfortable temperatures for the first full weekend and full week of October. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 The longwave trough that had funneled tropical moisture into the region this week is in the process of shearing out per GOES- East upper level water vapor imagery. This has allowed for the rain to be pulled away from the state early this morning along with clouds that are in the process of exiting per Nighttime Microphysics RGB. A few observations have reported light fog, but light winds from the north joined by drier air advecting into the state are expected to keep its occurrence. Cooler air is also following with the drier air and temperatures have already fallen to around 40 degrees in far northwest and north central Iowa as of 2am. Otherwise, today will be a special day due to dry conditions prevailing and plentiful sunshine as the cloud veil that has been over the state much of this week has finally been removed. Temperatures will peak in the low to middle 60s, which is about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for early October. Our flow aloft will be transitioning to northwesterly, which will allow a fast moving system to swing through the Dakotas and Minnesota Saturday afternoon and night. This will bring appreciable QG convergence over this region with some spilling into the northern half of Iowa. While forecast soundings and cross sections show a lot of dry air in the low levels through much of the day, saturation does increase late in the afternoon into the evening. However, the forcing looks to be temporally displaced from the fuller, but not full saturation, of the low and mid-levels. Thus, have decided to keep the forecast dry over northern Iowa. Highs on Saturday will be higher than today in the middle and upper 60s with a fair amount of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Similar pleasant conditions will hold through the weekend. A weak disturbance if forecast to sweep across Minnesota; while some model guidance hints at light shower activity in northern Iowa, precipitation chances have been kept out of the forecast. Weak forcing combined with low to mid level dry air will cause any rain aloft to evaporate before reaching the ground. Behind this system, a reinforced push of dry air will settle into central Iowa, eliminating any significant rainfall chances for the first full week of October. By mid next week, an upper level ridge building over the Four Corners will bring temperatures back into the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period with cloud cover diminishing overnight. Wind will be from the north to northeast at 5 to 10 kts. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ansorge LONG TERM...TDR AVIATION...Hagenhoff
