← Previous March 31, 2023 2:00 AM
ACUS03 KWNS 310701 SWODY3 SPC AC 310700 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Mid-level troughing, initially digging offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to amplifying southeastward through northern and central California into the Great Basin during this period. As this occurs, at least broad downstream mid-level ridging may build east of the southern Rockies through the Mississippi Valley vicinity, to the north of a persistent subtropical ridge centered near or west of the Yucatan Peninsula. However, mid-level height rises may be slowed or suppressed across the southern Great Plains Red River valley through northern Gulf Coast states by the eastward progression of a remnant embedded shorter wavelength trough. At the same time, while a mid-level low of Arctic origins lingers over southern Hudson Bay, a deep cyclone and associated larger-scale mid/upper troughing are forecast to gradually shift away from the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. A cold front trailing the cyclone is forecast to generally stall and weaken across the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Gulf coast vicinity. However, there may be some reinforcement of cool boundary-layer air by rainfall associated with increasingly widespread lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection driven thunderstorm activity. At this time the risk for severe hail appears generally low, but it may not be completely out of the question, mainly in more isolated early storm development. Otherwise, warming in lower/mid-troposphere probably will tend to cap low-level moisture return to deepening surface troughing across the central Great Plains. Beneath cold air associated with the digging mid-level troughing across the Northwest, destabilization may also contribute to a risk for widely scattered to scattered weak thunderstorm activity Sunday into Sunday night. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2023 $$