ACUS03 KWNS 310701
SWODY3
SPC AC 310700

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Mid-level troughing, initially digging offshore of the Pacific
Northwest coast, is forecast to amplifying southeastward through
northern and central California into the Great Basin during this
period.  As this occurs, at least broad downstream mid-level ridging
may build east of the southern Rockies through the Mississippi
Valley vicinity, to the north of a persistent subtropical ridge
centered near or west of the Yucatan Peninsula.  However, mid-level
height rises may be slowed or suppressed across the southern Great
Plains Red River valley through northern Gulf Coast states by the
eastward progression of a remnant embedded shorter wavelength
trough.  

At the same time, while a mid-level low of Arctic origins lingers
over southern Hudson Bay, a deep cyclone and associated larger-scale
mid/upper troughing are forecast to gradually shift away from the
U.S. Atlantic Seaboard.

A cold front trailing the cyclone is forecast to generally stall and
weaken across the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Gulf coast
vicinity.  However, there may be some reinforcement of cool
boundary-layer air by rainfall associated with increasingly
widespread lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection driven thunderstorm
activity.  At this time the risk for severe hail appears generally
low, but it may not be completely out of the question, mainly in
more isolated early storm development.  Otherwise, warming in
lower/mid-troposphere probably will tend to cap low-level moisture
return to deepening surface troughing across the central Great
Plains.

Beneath cold air associated with the digging mid-level troughing
across the Northwest, destabilization may also contribute to a risk
for widely scattered to scattered weak thunderstorm activity Sunday
into Sunday night.

..Kerr.. 03/31/2023

$$