058 
ACUS03 KWNS 090720
SWODY3
SPC AC 090719

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday in parts
of the High Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley.

...High Plains...
A low-amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across
the High Plains on Tuesday. At low-levels, a moist airmass will be
in place from the central High Plains westward into the foothills of
the Rockies. In response to surface heating, moderate instability
appears likely to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle
northward into eastern Colorado, western Kansas and western
Nebraska. As this takes place, convection will initiates in the
higher terrain of the Rockies and move eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear on the order of 20
to 30 kt could support a marginal severe threat with the stronger
multicells. In spite of warm mid-level temperatures, lapse rates
will be steep, suggesting a hail threat will be possible. Isolated
wind damage may also occur. A capping inversion should become
reestablished across the central Plains during the early evening,
causing the severe threat to diminish.

...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move east-southeastward across the
Ozarks on Tuesday as a front advances southward across the mid
Mississippi Valley. Some model depictions suggest that convection
could develop along the front during the afternoon. In this case,
surface dewpoints near 70 F, moderate instability and steep
low-level lapse rates would be sufficient for a marginal wind damage
threat. Uncertainty concerning the spatial distribution of the
threat is substantial at this range, and will depend upon the timing
of the front and magnitude of destabilization.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2020

$$