752 
ACUS03 KWNS 010744
SWODY3
SPC AC 010742

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from the Central
Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Northeast
States.

...North-central High Plains/Central Plains...
A belt of strengthening westerlies aloft will influence the region
into Wednesday afternoon/night. Severe thunderstorms will initially
be possible across the north-central High Plains Wednesday
afternoon/early evening, potentially including the Black Hills
vicinity southward into western Nebraska/northeast
Colorado/northwest Kansas. Some supercells are expected and at least
isolated large hail/strong wind gusts appear probable. Into
Wednesday evening/night, current thinking is that an MCS could
persist and move east-southeastward Wednesday night, generally near
the Kansas/Nebraska border with a severe threat possibly continuing
into the overnight.

...Midwest including Missouri to Ohio...
The boundary layer should become moderately to strongly unstable
Wednesday afternoon along and south of a southward-advancing front,
with the strongest destabilization (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) currently
expected across northern/central Missouri into much of
Illinois/Indiana. Sufficient near-frontal convergence and forcing
for ascent should allow for scattered deep convective development
through the afternoon. While deep-layer/low-level winds will be not
be overly strong, the degree of instability and roughly 20-35 kt
effective shear will support sustained multicellular clusters
capable of wind damage and some severe hail.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Northeast States...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough and a related belt of strong
west-northwesterly winds aloft will overlie a
south/southeastward-spreading front. While there is some uncertainty
regarding the exact degree of destabilization through the afternoon,
moderate buoyancy is plausible near/south of the front, with severe
storms expected particularly during the afternoon/early evening
hours of Wednesday. The strong mid/high-level westerlies and 40+ kt
effective shear would support some initial supercells along with
sustained southeastward-moving clusters. Damaging winds and severe
hail are possible.

..Guyer.. 06/01/2020

$$