← Previous March 29, 2024 2:26 AM

ACUS03 KWNS 290727
SWODY3
SPC AC 290726

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected
Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into
the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys...
At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave
troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in
the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into
the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong
thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight
period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from
northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature
inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000
to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This
environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range,
would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger
elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail
threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential
somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central
Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk
along this corridor.

Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is
forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and
southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite
of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a
warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be
possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska
and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is
expected to be too capped for convective initiation.

..Broyles.. 03/29/2024

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