ACUS03 KWNS 280630
SPC AC 280629

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Thursday.

...Southern Plains...

The upper pattern will not change much from the previous day on
Thursday. An upper trough will remain centered on the Rockies with
several weak shortwave impulses ejecting northeast across the
southern Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 60s will be maintained on
deep-layer southerly flow across central/eastern OK/TX ahead of a
slow-moving cold front. A few strong storms may be possible across
western/central TX near the cold front given modest instability and
shear, but forecast guidance varies with timing and location of
convection, as well as coverage. If larger-scale ascent arrives
earlier in the day, low-end severe potential could emerge. But
current guidance suggests convective development is more likely
near/after 00z when instability will be decreasing and inhibition
increasing. Given uncertainty and conditional nature of severe
potential, severe probs will not be added at this time.

..Leitman.. 09/28/2021