ACUS03 KWNS 140706
SPC AC 140705

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


Severe storms are not currently forecast on Friday.


Moderate westerly deep-layer flow will persist across Texas and the
Gulf Coast states on Friday. An upper shortwave impulse will migrate
east/northeast from the central/southern Plains toward the mid-MS
Valley. A weak surface low or trough will progress eastward across
TX and weaken during the day before strong high pressure builds
southward down the Plains. A cold front will push south/southeast
across much of TX during the afternoon and evening, moving offshore
into the Gulf early Saturday morning. 

...Southeast TX...

Some strong elevated thunderstorms could develop across parts of
southeast TX during the afternoon/evening, as 7-7.5 C/km midlevel
lapse rates will remain over the region and contribute to weak to
moderate MLCAPE. Forecast guidance varies quite a bit in the
evolution of the surface low/trough across TX and the timing of the
cold front. Additionally, several rounds of thunderstorms are
expected across the region between Day 1/Wed and Day 3/Fri,
resulting in uncertainty in the quality of any warm sector and
possibly outflow boundaries, etc. While some threat for hail or
gusty winds could develop, uncertainty is too high to include
probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2021