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ACUS02 KWNS 290533 SWODY2 SPC AC 290532 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and sporadic hail will be possible across parts of the central Plains vicinity. Additional strong to severe storms capable of producing hail are possible across parts of Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. ...Central Plains vicinity... Weak upper ridging is forecast to be oriented over the High Plains on Tuesday. However, forecast guidance depicts weak perturbations ejecting from the central/southern Rockies eastward into the adjacent High Plains ahead of the eastward-advancing western upper shortwave trough over CA/northwest Mexico. As has been the theme over the past week or two, vertical shear will remain modest. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest as well as strong heating and mixing occur. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop during the late afternoon/early evening and shift generally east/southeast. Storms developing over eastern CO/western KS may intensify/grow upscale as they shift toward the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening, where boundary-layer moisture, and thus instability, will be greater. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with this activity through the evening. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will lift northeast across MN/WI on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow will remain fairly weak, with only around 20-25 kt effective shear magnitudes forecast. Nevertheless, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 80s F. Isolated strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon into early evening, with the strongest cells capable of marginally severe hail and gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 05/29/2023 $$