ACUS02 KWNS 290533
SWODY2
SPC AC 290532

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and
sporadic hail will be possible across parts of the central Plains
vicinity. Additional strong to severe storms capable of producing
hail are possible across parts of Minnesota into far western
Wisconsin.

...Central Plains vicinity...

Weak upper ridging is forecast to be oriented over the High Plains
on Tuesday. However, forecast guidance depicts weak perturbations
ejecting from the central/southern Rockies eastward into the
adjacent High Plains ahead of the eastward-advancing western upper
shortwave trough over CA/northwest Mexico. As has been the theme
over the past week or two, vertical shear will remain modest.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest as well as strong heating
and mixing occur. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected
to develop during the late afternoon/early evening and shift
generally east/southeast. Storms developing over eastern CO/western
KS may intensify/grow upscale as they shift toward the OK/TX
Panhandles during the evening, where boundary-layer moisture, and
thus instability, will be greater. Isolated large hail and strong
gusts will be possible with this activity through the evening.

...Upper Midwest...

A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will lift northeast across
MN/WI on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow will remain fairly weak, with only
around 20-25 kt effective shear magnitudes forecast. Nevertheless,
low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE as temperatures warm
into the mid/upper 80s F. Isolated strong to severe storms are
expected during the afternoon into early evening, with the strongest
cells capable of marginally severe hail and gusty winds.

..Leitman.. 05/29/2023

$$